Eight games into the season, Michigan is undefeated and the nation's leader in total quarterback rating is J.J. McCarthy. A Heisman candidate? You bet.
The Heisman frontrunner, according to the sportsbooks. McCarthy (+240) is now the odds-on favorite to win the award over at Draft Kings, ahead of Washington's Michael Penix Jr. (+320), LSU's Jayden Daniels (+340) and Florida State's Jordan Travis (+800). Also lurking: Oklahoma's Dillon Gabriel and Oregon's Bo Nix.
"I think it's legitimate to be talking about Michael Penix Jr. and J.J. right now," Jon Jansen said Monday on 97.1 The Ticket.
McCarthy has every right to be in the conversation. While his statistical totals aren't quite as gaudy as some of his counterparts, largely because Michigan hasn't needed them to be, McCarthy is front and center among the best quarterbacks in the country. This really can't be disputed.
On top of his nation-leading QBR of 93.7 -- Daniels ranks second -- McCarthy is second to Daniels in passing efficiency at 199.1, followed by Nix, USC's Caleb Williams and Penix. He's also second to Daniels in yards per attempt and second to Nix in completion percentage. In fact, McCarthy's efficiency rating is currently the seventh-highest single-season mark ever, smack-dab between Baker Mayfield in 2017 (198.9) and Kyler Murray in 2018 (199.2). Both of them won the Heisman. So did Joe Burrow in 2019 with a rating of 202.0.
Penix leads the country in passing yards and Daniels leads in touchdowns, while McCarthy ranks 28th and seventh, respectively, in those categories. Again, No. 2 Michigan has been so dominant it hasn't had to fully unleash its best player. But McCarthy has only thrown two fewer touchdowns (18) than Penix, who's thrown about 15 more passes per game. He also has three touchdowns on the ground.
You may have heard NBC's Todd Blackledge, a national championship-winning quarterback and Heisman vote-getter at Penn State, during Michigan's rout of Michigan State Saturday night, during which McCarthy was all but perfect in a four-touchdown performance: "After watching him, I'm convinced he's as good as any quarterback in the country."
The case for Penix is that he's led No. 5 Washington to a 7-0 record including a comeback win over No. 8 Oregon, with No. 24 USC, No. 13 Utah and No. 11 Oregon State still to come. Daniels has led No. 15 LSU to a 6-2 record and a win over No. 16 Missouri, with No. 9 Alabama still to come. They have had their Heisman moments.
McCarthy has led Michigan to an 8-0 record by devouring non-conference cupcakes and a down Big Ten. The Wolverines have won every game by at least 24 points and won't face a ranked team until they visit Penn State next month. Then again, have McCarthy and Michigan made the Big Ten look worse than it is? Take their first three conference opponents: Rutgers, Nebraska and Minnesota are 14-5 this season against everyone else.
(And not for nothing, UNLV is 6-0 with a Power Five win over Vanderbilt outside of its loss to Michigan, and Bowling Green, the only team to really frustrate McCarthy this season, has a Power Five win at Georgia Tech.)
All to say, McCarthy has a real chance to be Michigan's first Heisman winner since Charles Woodson in 1997. There is work to be done, of course. The burden of proof is on McCarthy to back up his numbers against the best teams on Michigan's schedule. McCarthy must lift the Wolverines when they need him most, on the road against Penn State and at home against the Buckeyes. If he does, and if Michigan wins its third straight Big Ten title in the process, there will be no denying McCarthy's claim to the Heisman.
It doesn't mean it's his to lose. It doesn't even mean he'll win it in the end. Penix and Daniels, and others, could be just as impressive in equally big games down the stretch. Their numbers speak loudly, too. But McCarthy's place in the Heisman conversation isn't a product of Michigan's brand or a PR creation conjured out of thin air. It's a reflection of his play, and will be moving forward.
Can he win the Heisman? You bet. And he'll deserve it if he does.
