By all accounts, Michigan State is a lock to make the NCAA Tournament after averting disaster Sunday against Maryland. And Michigan is probably in after a big road win at Ohio State -- but don't write the Wolverines into your bracket just yet.
In his latest projection of the field of 68, Jerry Palm of CBS Sports has Michigan as one of the Last Four teams in, a 12 seed playing BYU in a First Four game in the South Region. The winner would face 5-seed UConn.
The Wolverines are 17-13 and No. 31 in the NET Rankings entering the Big Ten Tournament, where they'll kick things off Thursday against Indiana. Palm has the Hoosiers, 18-12 and No. 44 in the NET, as one of his First Four teams out.
So Thursday looms large. Palm says Michigan-Indiana "is almost certainly an elimination game from the NCAA Tournament," but the winner isn't guaranteed anything other than a chance to play top-seed Illinois on Friday. "A win in that game," says Palm "would likely be enough to get into the tournament."
Others paint a more optimistic picture for Michigan. Joe Lunardi of ESPN has the Wolverines earning one of the last four byes in his latest projection of the bracket, an 11-seed playing 6-seed LSU in the West Region. Same with USA Today. Bill Bender of the Sporting News likewise has Michigan as an 11-seed, but says the Wolverines, along with Rutgers, "must hold off Indiana in the Big Ten tournament."
To wit: Michigan needs one more win to sleep soundly Saturday night.
Michigan State, meanwhile, is widely projected as an 8-seed ahead of its Big Ten Tournament opener against Maryland. The Spartans are 20-11 and No. 40 in the NET as they track toward their 24th straight appearance in the NCAA Tournament, the second longest active streak in college basketball. (Kansas has made 32 straight.)
Lundardi has MSU playing 9-seed San Francisco in the South Region, while Palm has MSU playing 9-seed San Diego State in the East Region. In either case, a matchup with 1-seed Baylor would likely await. The reining national champs beat the Spartans 75-58 in the Battle 4 Atlantis in November.