Michigan football has lost virtually all its big games under Jim Harbaugh.
Yet, if his Wolverines defeat Ohio State Saturday, all will quickly be forgiven and forgotten.
The Wolverines would play in the Big Ten Championship Game for the first time. If Michigan were to follow with a victory over the West Division champ, the Wolverines would undoubtedly reach the College Football Playoff for the first time.
And Michigan football would actually receive hardware for the first time since its most recent Big Ten title way back in 2004.
A lot of ghosts will be exorcised, that's for sure. Even Michigan's loss to Michigan State would be negated.
Conversely, a loss would make this an incredibly unfulfilling season. A 10-2 record would be unusually haunting and gut-wrenching if the defeats were to MSU and Ohio State.
Michigan has been here before with Harbaugh. The Wolverines were No. 3 and Ohio State No. 2 in 2016, Michigan No. 4 and the Buckeyes No. 10 in 2018. Harbaugh has yet to beat OSU as Michigan coach.
However, the epic proportions of this game are enhanced because each team is peaking.
Ohio State was breathtaking in its utter destruction of MSU Saturday. Against the only team to beat Michigan, the Buckeyes gained more than 500 yards and led 49-0 at halftime. Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud is now the leading candidate to win the Heisman Trophy.
But it would be unwise to put too much stock in that game. Michigan Stadium will present a much different environment. Harbaugh's previous two division-deciding games vs. the Buckeyes were in Columbus.
Another tangible factor is Michigan's defense. Aidan Hutchinson, David Ojabo and Dax Hill are likely first-round NFL Draft picks, and defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald isn't Don Brown.
Michigan will be a touchdown underdog in this game, and ESPN's matchup projection has the Wolverines with roughly a 39 percent chance of winning.
That might seem optimistic, and driven by overvaluing Michigan's lopsided (59-18) victory at decidedly mediocre Maryland Saturday (Ohio State beat the Terps 66-17, albeit at home). It is not, however, unreasonable.
After seven seasons of disappointing defining moments, this is the biggest yet for Harbaugh's program. It's literally an all-or-nothing scenario. The last thing Michigan football can afford is one more big lead-on only to present another huge letdown vs. Ohio State.
Yet, here it is, everything Michigan fans have been dreaming of, and hoping it isn't about to turn into nightmare.
Familiar scenario. Same result? It's not as easy a call as it seems.
