Jim Harbaugh can’t afford a loss at Michigan State Saturday.
The pendulum will swing dramatically for him pending the result.
A loss, and it'd be a sign he is possibly done. A victory, and his Wolverines might finally be on their way.
There isn't neutral ground.
The lack of accomplishment by Michigan’s football program since the Wolverines most recent Big Ten championship in 2004 is stunning. No conference titles. Not a single appearance in the Big Ten Championship Game. No College Football Playoff appearances.
The Spartans have been a huge thorn in Michigan's side. Not only has MSU achieved all of the above in recent memory, but the Spartans have two significant victories over Ohio State the past decade. State has won nine of its last 13 meetings with Michigan. Even though the Spartans have waned the previous five years, Harbaugh is still just 3-3 vs. MSU. Two of the losses were particularly ugly, the failed punt attempt in 2015 and last season’s debacle.
Both teams enter Saturday in the Top 10 for first time since 1964, which signifies just how much of a crossroads game it tends to be.
A victory by Michigan would regain Harbaugh much of his lost creditability. The Wolverines likely would come out of it with a Top-5 ranking. Penn State doesn't exactly seem threatening after being beaten at home by Illinois Saturday. Indiana and Maryland have fizzled. It would leave Michigan in position to down an Ohio State squad that's displayed more cracks than usual.
But if Michigan loses to MSU, Harbaugh's margin for error would be all but erased. The Wolverines would pretty much need to run the table and defeat OSU to restore their creditability.
How much would Michigan be able to celebrate a 10-2 season that has losses to both its rivals, no trophies and another trip to a New Year's Day Bowl outside the CFP?
It would only add insult to injury if Mel Tucker, who has turned around MSU's program with remarkable swiftness, got the best of Harbaugh for the second year in a row.
The perception, justifiably, would be that he has done more at MSU in two years than Harbaugh has done in seven at UM.
The bottom line in the Michigan-MSU rivalry is that the Wolverines are the Spartans' biggest rival. Always have been. Always will be. For Michigan, it's undoubtedly Ohio State.
It has created an odd dynamic for our in-state Big Ten rivalry. What is often lost on Michigan fans, alums and even, it seems, by those involved in the Wolverines' football program, is that in order to make the Ohio State game truly meaningful, beating MSU, which is much more formidable the past dozen years than for decades previously, is imperative.
As such, after seven years, it could be intolerable if Harbaugh doesn't pass his biggest test yet as Michigan's coach Saturday in East Lansing.