Alabama hasn’t recorded a 10-win ATS (against the spread) season since 2015, their lone such season since 2008. That streak will end on Jan. 1 when the Crimson Tide covers in a Rose Bowl win over Michigan, predicts the majority of bettors.
Minutes after earning the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff, the Wolverines opened as a 2.5-point favorite at BetMGM. The public immediately bet against them, driving down the spread to +1 in the coming days with nearly 80% of the tickets and handle on Alabama.
Two weeks later, not much has changed.
As of Dec. 18, the Wolverines (-1.5) have 31% of the handle on 32% of the tickets. In moneyline betting – at -120, down from -125 at open — they have 13% of the handle on 19% of the tickets.
The public isn’t backing Michigan in any notable markets, including against the first-half spread. As a 0.5-point favorite, they have only 14% of the handle (on 54% of the tickets).
It’s a sharp contrast from last year’s semifinal when approximately 70% of the spread handle and 60% of the moneyline handle were on Michigan at kickoff against TCU.
In over/under betting, the public was initially split when the total opened at 45.5. And while the number remains 45.5, the over now has 60% of the handle on 70% of the tickets. The first-half over has 95% of the handle on 50% of the bets.
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