After all the craziness of 2020, I can’t believe we’ve made it to Week 17. We’re in for a fun Sunday, because the final weekend should be a wild one. Since only the Chiefs’ No. 1 seed in the AFC is set in stone, most games will have some sort of playoff implications.
As for the “this team has more to play for” angle? Over the last five seasons, underdogs have gone 41-37-2 against the spread (ATS) in Week 17. On top of that, dogs of 7.5 points or more have gone 16-12 ATS. Just something to consider when putting together your card.
Let’s jump into it. Here are my best bets for Week 17. All lines are as of Thursday.
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Atlanta Falcons +7 (PointsBet) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’m taking the Falcons again just like I did last week against the Chiefs. They have not thrown in the towel and have been competitive since Raheem Morris took over as head coach. We all know Matt Ryan and Co. can put up points, but it has been their defense that has kept them in games since Dan Quinn was fired.
Over the last 10 games, Atlanta has given up just 20.9 points per game as opposed to 32.2 over the first five games of the season. Atlanta now ranks 12th in Defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders, which is a big leap from the beginning of the season.
While Tampa Bay still has something to play for, this is the same Falcons team that almost beat the Bucs straight up two weeks ago.
Side note: This is definitely a game where you want to shop for the best line. Depending on the book, I’m seeing some 6.5’s out there. Seven is ideal, but I’m still comfortable getting 6.5 in this situation.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams +3.5 (FanDuel)
EVERYONE is going to be on the Cards here, so it is only natural I like the Rams in this spot. Let me give you a few reasons why. First, the coaching mismatch in Kliff Kingsbury vs. Sean McVay is one-sided. Give me McVay all day. Kingsbury has fallen off of a cliff (pun intended) with his decision making since the Cards 5-2 start. The same thing happened to him last season.
Arizona QB Kyler Murray is also dealing with an injury. Even when healthy though, Murray has struggled against this Rams team. He is 0-3 against Los Angeles, throwing for just 5.7 yards per attempt and rushing for only 43 total yards over those three games.
We’re also seeing a huge overreaction to Jared Goff getting hurt, which gives us value on the Rams. Here is a fun fact: Since the start of 2019, 22 QBs making their first career start in the NFL have gone a combined 16-5-1 ATS. What’s more impressive is that 10 of them have won outright.
NFC West battles are always tough, so I’ll take the points here. I’ll also be placing a little sprinkle on the Rams moneyline.
Washington Football Team -2.5 (FanDuel) at Philadelphia Eagles
Washington is coming off of a tough loss, but they are getting two of their best offensive players back. Quarterback Alex Smith practiced on Thursday, and coach Ron Rivera said running back Antonio Gibson is on track to play. Things are looking up for the WFT just in time for their big game.
The Football Team has the second best defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders and their defensive line will feast on Philadelphia’s overmatched offensive line. Chase Young and that WFT front four will pressure Jalen Hurts all game long, making this matchup the rookie's toughest test to date.
On the Eagles side, I wouldn’t be wouldn’t be surprised if they come out sluggish after last week’s season ending loss to the Cowboys that eliminated Philly from playoff contention. I also anticipate some of the team’s injured players sitting this finale out, like their stud defensive linemen Fletcher Cox.
The Football Team is 4-1 ATS versus the NFC East this year. Look for them to make it 5-1 and punch their playoff ticket on Sunday night.
Good luck and as always, make sure you shop around for the best lines for your wagers.