This doesn’t make sense at all, does it?
Are the Yankees really going to pass on both of the 26-year-old free agent superstars on this year’s free agent market? For years now the question wasn’t going to be if they would sign Bryce Harper or Manny Machado after getting under the luxury tax threshold in 2018. The question was which one, and the better question was would they sign both.
James Paxton, JA Happ, DJ LeMahieu and Troy Tulowitzki are nice additions, but not part of the put-you-over-the-top spending spree this team was supposed to go on after resetting their tax rate for 2019.
The Yankees were supposed to become the Yankees again. Or did I imagine the whole thing?
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There are numerous answers to all of these, the most interesting of which is that something big is still possible. After all, until Harper and Machado sign elsewhere, it is unwise to count out the Yankees. I have stated many times -- and The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal repeated the refrain here -- that you should never believe stars of this magnitude aren’t going to be Yankees until you see them standing at a podium holding another team’s jersey over their million-dollar suits.
So let’s tackle this winter of a Yankees fan’s discontent one issue at a time and see if we can make any sense of this:
The Yankees were supposed to spend big money after resetting their luxury tax rate.
This was the theory all of us in the industry had when the talk of the magic salary number was floated a few years ago. The Yankees were waiting for some of their previous big contracts to expire -- Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia -- and with their young (and cheap) talent providing cover, they could sneak under the tax threshold for the first time ever and drop their overage penalty from 50 percent to 20 percent.
Owner Hal Steinbrenner had said many times he didn’t think a championship team needed to spend over $200 million since he had seen other World Series winners accomplish that over the last decade (Boston in 2018 notwithstanding).
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But the son of George Steinbrenner also knows how to blow out the budget like he did after 2008 (Sabathia, Texieira, A.J. Burnett) and 2013 (Masahiro Tanaka, Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury). I like to think these are moments right out of "Young Frankenstein" when Gene Wilder embraces his family legacy. Can’t you see Hal screaming at the top of his lungs, “MY NAME IS STEINBRENNER"?
I’ve heard over the years another reason the Yankees wanted to cut their luxury-tax contributions is they don’t like subsidizing their competition -- a logic of which is hard to argue. With the low-revenue, small-market Tampa Bay Rays using those financial subsidies to compete directly against the Yankees and throw the proverbial wrench into their AL East dominance, it isn’t hard to understand why the Yankees would object to funding a division rival.
I was awaiting some sort of nuclear response once the goal of getting under the tax threshold was met. Either that was a gross miscalculation and the Yankees are not redeploying the full financial might of the “fully operational Death Star” as Brian Cashman called them last month, or they are quietly moving through hyperspace preparing a sneak attack of epic proportions.
And is now a good time to remind Cashman that the Death Star was actually blown up by the rebels?
Twice!
Signing Tulowitzki and LeMahieu means no room in the infield for Machado. Doesn’t it?
While the Yankees are not allowed to say they are out on any free agent -- it’s against the CBA regulations to produce any statement that could be seen as depressing a player’s value on the free market -- their actions seem to indicate they have plans that do not include Machado in their infield.
But there is a tendency to analyze each move as if it’s the last one the team is making before taking the field for Opening Day or Game 1 of the World Series. And making an assumption like that is just plain silly when you’ve noticed how many players are still available and how many transactions routinely occur in January and February nowadays.
What seems to make little sense is the party line on each of these moves. There are nothing but glowing reports coming from those who have seen Tulowitzki working out, and if his feet are finally pain-free, he might very well be ready to compete at a high level again. But until he takes the field regularly and proves that’s the case, there is still a level of uncertainty with counting on Tulo as the everyday starting shortstop.
Sure, moving Gleyber Torres to shortstop and playing LeMahieu at second base is a fallback option. But couldn’t they simply have done that without signing Tulo and promising him the shortstop job? The Yankees are not as good a defensive team with Miguel Andujar and Torres on the left side of the infield, especially with three lefty starters in the rotation that would like more of those ground balls turned into outs than a year ago.
The focus on infield defense isn’t simply about Andujar. As a team, the Yankees turned the fewest double plays in the majors last year and the fewest by any team in a full season since World War II. Higher strikeout rates and more fly balls in the launch-angle revolution account for some of that, but it was clear watching the games that the Yankees were giving away too many outs in their infield. Signing Tulo is proof the Yankees prefer to keep Torres at second base over shifting him to shortstop.
LeMahieu’s signing sent me scurrying for information and answers. One scout I called said, “Let me know when you figure out where he’s going to play.”
Well, the Yankees have indicated LeMahieu will fill a utility role. But here’s the part that doesn’t make sense to me: Did they really just sign a Gold Glove-winning second baseman to move to other positions he hasn’t really played and pay him $12 million per year, which is three times what they paid Neil Walker (a switch hitter, unlike the righty-swinging LeMahieu) last year for the same role?
Well, it might make sense if there were other moves to be made, and who knows what they would be -- trade Andujar for Nolan Arrenado or more pitching? Move him to first base? Trade Greg Bird?
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And in some of these scenarios, signing Machado then makes sense.
Trading Andujar still makes little sense because of his high offensive output for minimum salary -- Andujar is still two years away from arbitration. And while he can conceivably improve his defense, are the Yankees willing to wait for that to happen?
Are the Yankees getting cheap?
When the Yankees are still among the highest payrolls, I find the use of the word “cheap” misplaced when fans talk about the team. And keep in mind, this wonderful young core is inexpensive now, but will be due for big raises in the near future. This time next year, we will be talking about record arbitration figures for Aaron Judge, who could jump to the $10 million to $11 million range. Gary Sanchez could cash in big if he has a year more like his 2017 numbers than his 2018 stats. Luis Severino will be in his second arbitration-eligible season, meaning this trio that cost the Yankees less than $2 million combined last season would cost them more than $20 million combined in 2020. Paydays are coming, but that’s only part of the picture.
As I noted earlier, there has to be a Young Steinbrenner moment coming, right? These are the Yankees -- the team that won three straight World Series and then signed the top free agent pitcher, Mike Mussina, the team that won four straight AL pennants and signed free agent first baseman Jason Giambi -- combined contracts that almost two decades ago totaled over $200 million.
But Mussina was signed to replace David Cone, Giambi signed to replace Tino Martinez. Those Yankees teams had clear areas of need with no proven internal options, so they signed the best available players on the market. And mind you, a much different market where not enough teams could come close to competing with the Yankees' financial strength.
These Yankees have alternatives that one can argue present viable alternatives to Machado and/or Harper. Andujar at third and the eventual return of Didi Gregorius at short can be seen as a better allocation of resources. Plus you’ll need money for Didi, too -- he is possibly looking at $100 million-plus as a free agent next winter.
And adding Giancarlo Stanton last year at a decent discount seems to have taken a lot of the steam out of what I once thought was inevitable -- Harper to the Yankees.
Cashman has claimed he has enough outfielders, but he counts Jacoby Ellsbury and Clint Frazier in that mix -- both of them need to prove they are healthy enough to play in 2019. And Brett Gardner is a valuable presence, but it’s also fair to say his one-year deal shouldn’t stand in the way of adding Harper, who has left-handed power, and that is oddly in short supply in this Yankees lineup.
So, yes, adding either Machado, Harper or both could offer a little more certainty in spots that don’t necessarily have that at the moment. But is the price too high, even for the Yankees?
Cashman has said many times that his job is to constantly look for better players than what the Yankees already have. Now, those players have to fit in a variety of ways -- position, price, makeup. While we can argue all three of those categories with these players, it’s hard to argue that signing either or both of these guys would not simply make the Yankees better.
Do the Yankees really need Machado or Harper?
This might be the one that’s hardest to answer of all.
As noted above, the Yankees that won pennants and world championships didn’t hesitate to add the biggest free agent talents in Mussina and Giambi, but those players presented a way to fill a newly created hole. And they also made the Yankees younger and more productive. They came with a price tag the Yankees could choose to afford, and that seems to be the case here, too. The openings are just not as clear.
On the other hand, these Yankees are not as desperate as the 2008 and 2013 versions were before their big spending sprees. The ’08 team missed the playoffs for the first time in over a decade, and the ’13 team finished with the fewest wins of any Yankees team in over a decade.
This Yankees team is coming off 91 and 100 win seasons -- both playoff seasons -- with a young core building to what they hope is something bigger. Is it possible that they don’t see themselves as desperate enough to pounce on Machado or Harper the way they did on Teixeira or Ellsbury? Just evoking the names of the latter two will remind Yankees fans of the uncertainty that comes with throwing this kind of money at free agent talent.
Still, what’s hard to imagine is the Yankees playing hands-off on the biggest stars in the game when they become available. It began with Reggie Jackson in 1976, and it hasn’t really stopped -- until now. Is it going to be more of the same in the coming years when potential free agents are Arrenado, Mookie Betts and Mike Trout?
What you have to keep coming back to is that the Yankees eventually act like the Yankees, and that "Young Frankenstein" moment has to happen at some point.
And what is really hard to answer is this: If not these guys now, then who and when?
Follow Sweeny on Twitter at @YankeesWFAN