The Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) will take on the Texas Longhorns (11-1) in the 2024 SEC Championship Game. Texas is favored by 2.5 points and the over/under is 49 points at the time of this writing. Georgia has had their ups and downs this season, and has looked as vulnerable as they have in years, but they still managed to make it to this game. This is the first year Texas had to play in the SEC, and they dominated, with just one loss to the very team they will face in this contest. Keep reading to see what bets I’m targeting for this game with a full explanation.
Best Bet #1: Georgia +2.5
This might be the most contrarian bet I have made all season, and that is saying something. Everyone knows that Texas lost to the Bulldogs earlier this season as their only loss all year, so naturally, they think that the Longhorns are certainly going to get some revenge here in the SEC Championship. There is just no way that Texas loses to the same team twice, right? That is why 86% of the early money is on the Longhorns spread, and 83% of it is on their moneyline as well.
In addition, the public perception of Georgia right now is probably the lowest it has been in the Kirby Smart era. Even though they are 10-2, they could easily have four losses this year if they didn’t clutch up in some late game situations. If you remember very early in the season, they came very close to losing to Kentucky in a 13-12 low-scoring win. They then lost to Alabama 41-34 in a thriller, and beat a 2-10 Mississippi State team by just 10 points. They lost 28-10 to Ole Miss in an embarrassing performance, and went to eight overtimes against unranked Georgia Tech before eventually winning 44-42 on a 2-point conversion.
It has been a very rocky road for the Bulldogs, and the public doesn’t trust them to get the job done. Texas has rolled over everyone this season outside of their 31-15 loss to Georgia, the one blemish on their schedule. They have had a few close calls, beating the always live Vanderbilt 27-24, and beating Arkansas on the road by just 10 points. Last week, they struggled against Texas A&M offensively, but were able to come out with a 17-7 win off a dominating defensive performance on the road.
Let’s not forget that whoever wins this game gets an automatic bid to the College Football Playoff as the SEC Champion. However, Georgia clearly has much more incentive to win this game. Even if they lost to Georgia, I think the Longhorns would get in regardless, albeit they wouldn’t have a higher seed. If the Bulldogs lose this game, I don’t know if they actually get in at all with three losses on their schedule. They know that in order to ensure a spot, they have got to win this game, or they are playing with fire.
I think the urgency is going to be there for them, and when you combine that with the fact that the public doesn’t trust them, Georgia seems like they are in a good spot here to pull off the upset. If you can get a +3 with them, I would obviously like that a lot more, and it could be worth just waiting it out as more money comes in on Texas. I expect the late public cash to be all over them, but be sure to monitor the line. If it starts moving toward Georgia, but the money is still on Texas, that is a great sign that we are on the right side.
Best Bet #2: Georgia vs. Texas Under 49
This isn’t my favorite bet of the two, but it is very rare that in a big game like this the sportsbooks aren’t going to want the under to hit when all is said and done. Because of parlays and same-game parlays, the over is generally one of the most popular wagers in every prime time football game. That is why unders have been so valuable in these Island games where there is going to be a ton of viewers.
Despite the perception being low of Georgia, they still have a top-50 defense in the country against the pass and the run. Obviously that is not up to the usual standard of the Bulldogs, but it still isn’t bad. Texas has been somewhat vulnerable through the air on defense, ranking 210th in the nation, but they have been a top-10 team in the country against the run. The only dude who can truly light it up here would be Carson Beck, and I’m not sure you can trust him to completely go off.
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