Week 12 of the college football season is shaping up to be pivotal, with sharp money providing intriguing insights into some key matchups. From Georgia’s desperation to stay in playoff contention against Tennessee to Texas facing an inconsistent Arkansas team and BYU looking to maintain their perfect record against Kansas, here are the sharp picks you should consider this week.
#12 Georgia (7-2) -9.5 vs. #7 Tennessee (8-1): -110, DraftKings
This week in college football, we have several fantastic games that will be must watch matchups, including this one between the Bulldogs and Volunteers. Tennessee is ranked No. 7 in the nation and has won four straight games coming into this one, including defeating Alabama in that stretch. Georgia lost in their last game against Ole Miss as a small road favorite, and now sit at 7-2 with their season on the line.
After their loss last week, the public seems to be turning away from Georgia. A notable 71% of the tickets and 59% of the total spread cash is on Tennessee to cover the large spread. Yet, despite a majority of the action going to the Vols, the line has moved in Georgia’s favor to this point from -9 to -10 in some places. That tells me that respected money is taking the Bulldogs to blow out Tennessee here.
Plus, this is just a terrible spot for the Vols. They have won four straight, and now have to go on the road against a desperate Georgia team that has to win this game to keep their season alive after losing in their last contest. It is the prototypical scenario that sets up a big win for the Bulldogs.
#3 Texas (8-1) -12 at Arkansas (5-4): -109, BetRivers
I don’t often side with the public on a wager, however, sometimes the public is actually on the right side of the game. The Longhorns have won four of their last five games, with the only loss coming to the aforementioned Georgia team a couple of weeks ago. Meanwhile, the Razorbacks have alternated wins and losses pretty much all season, sitting at 5-4 right now and a very inconsistent team.
Taking a look at the money and tickets in this game, it’s a pretty clear picture. 52% of the tickets are on Texas -12, but just 27% of the cash is on them to cover. Conversely, Arkansas is garnering 48% of the tickets but a whopping 73% of the money, showing some large bets on that side. Some would look at that and see that the sharps and big money bets are on Arkansas, so they must be the sharp play. I don’t think like that though, as with 73% of the money on the underdog, it is possible the sportsbooks will actually be rooting for the favorite.
It is important to take note of ML wagers as well that will be tied to Texas, but there is a good amount of money as well on Arkansas at +400, which would be a large liability for the book. I think at this point, they might actually prefer a Texas blowout win with the amount of attention that the Razorbacks are getting as a popular dog. As always, make sure to keep checking back for the betting splits to see where the money moves.
#6 BYU (9-0) ML vs. Kansas (3-6): -130, FanDuel
This game has the same feel to it that the Texas game does, as Kansas has become a very popular underdog this week for large bettors. The Jayhawks were expected to be a big contender this season in the Big 12, but they have had a lot of issues on defense, and the offense has been inconsistent. They have lost three of their last five games, while BYU is still undefeated at 9-0.
I do not think BYU is as good as their record, and they are long overdue for a loss, which is why this one scares me a bit. I would certainly not bet this until closer to kickoff, because I want to see where the money goes here. Late money could come in on the Cougars, in which case I would bet Kansas.
As it stands now though, 54% of the cash is on the underdog Jayhawks to cover this small spread. Again, wait until the public money comes in tomorrow and then place these wagers based off of what the sportsbook will need. I will say that the three games I listed here will likely have the highest handle on them, so they will be most critical for the books to come out on top.
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