As Week 17 unfolds, Sunday’s NFL slate presents intriguing opportunities for bettors. With divisional rivalries and inflated spreads on tap, value can be found on underdogs like the Cowboys, Panthers, and Giants. Each of these games brings unique storylines and betting angles, from the potential absence of Jalen Hurts to Carolina's second-half resurgence and the Colts' perceived overperformance. Let’s dive into the expert analysis and picks for Sunday’s critical showdowns.
Cowboys +8 at Eagles (-105, Caesars)
Since I bet this earlier this morning, the line has dropped significantly down to +6.5 at a lot of places in the market. This is off the news that it is very likely that Jalen Hurts is not going to be playing in this game for the Eagles. To be clear, I would not play this at that number of +6.5. I would need at the very least a +7 to play Dallas, even if backup Kenny Pickett is starting for the Eagles. Dallas is still going to be on the road here against a division opponent, which is never easy.
Still, if you can get a whole touchdown or better with Dallas, I think they have a great chance at covering that number. As mentioned, it is likely that Hurts is not going to be available for this game. Kenny Pickett wasn’t awful when he came in during their close loss to the Commanders last weekend, but he also wasn’t great, and the team consistently was settling for field goals. Dallas will continue to start Cooper Rush, and we know what he is at this point. He’s a game manager that can keep the Cowboys close enough in games.
I don’t expect this to be a high-scoring affair, but rather a close divisional game. The Eagles will probably still win the game in the end, as they need it more, but I wouldn’t lay over a touchdown with Pickett starting. However, I wouldn’t back Rush at under a touchdown either, and it all depends on the number you can get.
Panthers +8 at Buccaneers (-115, DraftKings)
Another large underdog that I will be betting on this weekend. Is it disgusting backing the Panthers against a Bucs team that needs a win for the division? Yes, yes it is. However, this feels like an inflated spread because of that. Everyone is going to want to back Tampa Bay after that embarrassing loss to Dallas last weekend, and everyone will also want to fade the Panthers after they eliminated the Cardinals from the playoffs.
Carolina has been playing far better football over the second half of the season opposed to the first half. QB Bryce Young has actually played like a guy that you feel comfortable with developing for the future, when before it seemed his career was all but over. RB Chuba Hubbard has been a great supporting piece for him and this offense. I have backed the Panthers several times since Young came back from his benching, and I will again here.
Tampa has been a bit overrated in the market all year in my opinion, but they seem to especially be here. They are tied with the Atlanta Falcons for the NFC South lead, and are coming off a bad loss, which equals a large handle on them here. The last time these two teams played, Tampa managed to squeak out a 26-23 win in overtime. These two teams are closer than many think, and I’ll take the +8 with the Panthers on the road.
Giants +8 vs. Colts (-115, BetMGM)
Personally, I don’t think the Giants are as bad as their record indicates. They are not a very good football team, obviously, but I think they have been unlucky to be as bad as they have been. Many of their losses have come from some horrendous QB play, such as pick 6’s or fumbles recovered for scores, and that kind of stuff is hard to translate from game to game. It is unlikely that it keeps happening over and over again, and even with bad QB play, they shouldn’t be throwing TDs to the opposing team every game.
On the other side, Indy has been the exact opposite. I think they are far worse than a 7-8 team, and have gotten the bigger end of the stick in several games this season. Over their last five games, they have won two games by a single point over the Patriots and Jets. Both of those games could have gone the other way, and we would be looking at an entirely different spread here. In games where the Colts faced a playoff team, they have been destroyed, getting whipped by both Denver and Detroit.
While the Colts should win this game, as they are still the better team, I think laying over a touchdown with them is just crazy. There is no shot I trust this team to win by margin on the road, and especially a margin this large. I’ll hold my nose here and bet the Giants at +8 to keep the game close.
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