Week 12 of the NFL season presents exciting opportunities in the player prop market, with several stars and emerging playmakers poised to exceed expectations. This week’s focus is on Giants RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr., and Bears WR DJ Moore, each facing defenses that set them up for big games in the receiving department. Let’s dive into the matchups, trends, and stats driving these best bets.
Giants RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. Over 9.5 Receiving Yards vs. Buccaneers (-120, DraftKings)
Now with Daniel Jones out and Tommy DeVito under center, it’s reasonable to expect that Tracy Jr. will continue to see a lot of work moving forward. As one of the few bright spots on the team this year, he finds himself in a fantastic option, not as a runner of the football, but as a receiver out of the backfield. Not only will he be a safe option for DeVito, who will likely be more prone to check the ball down than Jones was, but the Buccaneers have allowed opposing running backs to rack up 51.3 receiving yards per game, most in the NFL. As +6 home underdogs, the game script should also favor New York’s passing game. Back on October 13, Tracy posted career-highs with six catches for 57 yards and I think he has a great chance to eclipse those numbers in this matchup.
Bears WR DJ Moore Over 46.5 Receiving Yards vs. Vikings (-110, BetMGM)
Speaking of good spots, DJ Moore should produce this week. Going up against the Vikings, who have allowed the 2nd-most receptions, 2nd-most targets and 3rd-most receiving yards to opposing wideouts, Moore shouldn’t have an issue racking up yardage just like he did last week when he caught seven passes for 62 yards against the Packers in the first game under new OC Thomas Brown.
As +3.5 home underdogs, the Bears should also be playing from behind for a portion of this game, which also favors Chicago’s passing game. Fun fact: Moore caught 12 screen passes for 12 yards in former OC Shane Waldron’s offense over the first nine games of the year. In Brown’s first game, he caught four passes for 44 yards on screens. That’s a great way to rack up yards and I love that they prioritized doing so last week. Let’s run it back in this easier matchup.
Michael Pittman Jr. Over 45.5 Receiving Yards vs. Lions (-113, FanDuel)
Coming off eight targets last week, Pittman Jr. has had an off-season, but sees an elite matchup against a terrible Vik
Raiders TE Brock Bowers Over 58.5 Receiving Yards vs. Broncos (-120, BetMGM)
With both Zamir White and Alexander Mattison out at running back, the worst rush offense in the NFL will look… like the worst rush offense in the NFL with Ameer Abdullah and Dylan Laube splitting the carries against a great Broncos defense. Coming off the best game of his amazing rookie season (13 receptions on 16 targets, 126 yards, TD), I expect Bowers to be the focal point once again and to line up everywhere in Las Vegas’ formations. I’d bet this if it was 10 yards higher.
Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt Over 18.5 Rushing Attempts vs. Panthers (-130, FanDuel)
The Panthers have the worst rush defense in the NFL (and have allowed the most carries per game: 28.4), so I don’t mind going over his yardage mark, either, but Hunt should see a huge volume once again in what could be a lopsided affair. He’s gone over this in four of his last six starts and cleared 21 carries in all four of those games where he went over this.
Buccaneers WR Mike Evans Over 51.5 Receiving Yards vs. Giants (-115, BetMGM)
Evans is returning from an injury and will be extra motivated after watching his team lose repeatedly over the past few weeks. He reportedly won’t be limited in any way or be on a snap count of any sort and also needs to average 95 yards per game for the rest of the season to tie Jerry Rice’s NFL record for the most number of consecutive 1,000 yard seasons with 11. With Chris Godwin out for the year, Baker Mayfield should pepper Evans with targets. Since 2019, Evans has averaged 5.3 catches on 7.6 targets for 74.0 yards and I expect him to eclipse all those numbers against the Giants, who have somehow allowed a perfect passer rating to deep passing this year, per Fantasy Points.
Eagles TE Dallas Goedert Over 48.5 Receiving Yards vs. Rams (-115, BetMGM)
DeVonta Smith is out with an injury and the Rams have allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends and I’d rather target him than AJ Brown based on his inflated yardage mark. In his first and only game played without Smith this season, he caught seven passes for 62 yards against the Buccaneers and this game sets up well as a potential shootout with several stars healthy on both sides. Last week, Patriots tight ends combined for 98 yards and guys like Brock Bowers (93 yards), Tucker Kraft (88 yards) and Trey McBride (67) easily surpassed this number. Goedert is in a fantastic spot to produce this week.
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