Every week in the NFL, we have some insane stuff happen that nobody would have thought would occur. That is why bold predictions are really never so bold, because anything can happen on any given Sunday, and nothing should ever be dismissed immediately. I bet on underdogs with almost every pick I make, with a couple of favorites in there that I think are valuable after maybe having a bad week the week before. Let’s see if we can predict some stuff that will happen this weekend in the craziest sport in the nation.
Bears Upset Lions on Thanksgiving Day
As always, my predictions come from the biggest needs for the sportsbook, which often dictates where the massive upsets will spark up. Obviously, one of their biggest liabilities this week is on Thanksgiving, where even your old uncle Henry is betting on the Detroit Lions against the Chicago Bears. It would be a feast for the books if somehow Matt Eberflus was able to get his first victory on the road against a winning team. Detroit is a freight train right now that has been an ATM machine for bettors over the last month of action. Just push the button and watch the money roll in. I think it is very possible that ends here in an island game during a holiday, where the handle will be ginormous. There’s also a $200,000 bet on Lions ML at Caesars right now.
Last year, the Bears and Justin Fields almost beat the Lions twice, and in typical Bears fashion they blew it. The improvement of this offense since they fired Shane Waldron is very noticeable, and Caleb Williams has looked legit over the last two weeks. That was a Vikings defense that is ranked No. 2 in passing DVOA, and he put on a good performance through the air. I know it’s on the road against the NFL’s public darling, and it’s Eberflus, but don’t be shocked.
Bryce Young Leads Panthers Over Bucs With Elite Performance
Everyone is talking about this year’s rookie QB’s like Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams and Bo Nix, but no one seems to be noticing that the Carolina Panthers have quietly been very competitive over the last few weeks with former No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young back in the starters role. He was benched for veteran Andy Dalton earlier this season for how terrible he had played up to that point, but I think that could have been a wake up call to the young signal-caller.
In four games since returning as the starter, Young has thrown five touchdowns to three interceptions, which is a massive improvement compared to what he had been doing before the benching. He’s consistently had his team in position to win football games, and they have won two of the four games since he came off the bench. They narrowly lost to the Chiefs last week, tying the game at 27 with just over a minute left, but we all know that is too much time to leave Patrick Mahomes. They lost 30-27, but my goodness, Young wouldn’t even have been in that position before his benching.
I think he continues to show his growth at the position this weekend against the Buccaneers, who have been shredded this season through the air, ranking 26th in the NFL DVOA against the pass. Carolina beats the Bucs, and Young starts to shed the “bust” label off of him week by week.
Texans Continue to Sink, Lose to Jags
Much like the RMS Titanic, the Houston Texans were a beautiful ship that everyone wanted to be on before the season started. With a revamped roster, an up-and-coming head coach, and rookie of the year QB in C.J. Stroud, many thought they would take the next step this season. However, the water has been filled with icebergs along the way, and I think it is possible that a big one is on the horizon to seal their fate.
The biggest issue with Houston right now is obviously trying to figure out why Stroud is in a “sophomore slump” as many like to call it. Last year, in his rookie season, Stroud threw 23 touchdowns to just five interceptions all season, as well as amassing 4,108 yards passing. Entering Week 13 of the 2024 season, he has 14 touchdowns to nine interceptions, and 2,875 yards through the air. His turnovers have increased, and he hasn’t been nearly as effective. Some of that might be due to the fact that the Texans have struggled to run the ball, ranking 20th in rushing yards, and they have a questionable offensive line.
Whatever the reason is, they do not look like a very good football team right now. They just lost to the Tennessee Titans last weekend, one of the worst teams in football, and now take on the Jags. Jacksonville is awful, but everyone and their brother is on the Texans to bounce back here. I don’t think they deserve that kind of credit, and Trevor Lawrence and company can be the iceberg that will ultimately sink Houston.
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