The 2025 Oscars airs on Sunday night, and BetMGM’s latest odds provide insight into the favorites for Hollywood’s biggest awards. With shifting lines and surging contenders, there’s value to be found in several key categories. Let’s dive into the betting markets for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Actress, highlighting the top picks based on odds movement, betting trends, and industry buzz.
Best Picture: Anora (-210)
Sean Baker’s Anora has emerged as the dominant favorite for Best Picture, with its odds shortening from +500 in September 2024 to -200 two weeks ago, and now sitting at -210. The film has commanded an impressive 82.9% of the handle at BetMGM, further solidifying its frontrunner status.
Anora follows the whirlwind marriage of Anora Mikheeva (Mikey Madison), a Brooklyn-based sex worker, and Vanya Zakharov (Mark Eydelshteyn), the son of a Russian oligarch. Blending comedy, drama, and social commentary, Baker’s film has captivated audiences and critics alike. With The Brutalist fading from +225 to +700 and Conclave making a late surge from +1600 to +250, there are other contenders in play, but Anora remains the clear betting favorite.
Best Director: Sean Baker, Anora (-220)
Sean Baker has established himself as the overwhelming choice for Best Director, with 42.9% of tickets and a staggering 93.8% of the handle backing him. His odds have tightened from +225 in December 2024 to -190 two weeks ago and now sit at -220.
Baker’s raw and immersive storytelling in Anora has resonated deeply with both critics and industry insiders. The film’s blend of humor, heartbreak, and social critique, along with its visually striking aesthetic, showcases Baker’s distinct directorial voice. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) remains in the mix at +160, but with Baker’s momentum and Anora’s status as the Best Picture favorite, it’s hard to see him losing this category.
Best Actor: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (-250)
Adrien Brody has taken control of the Best Actor race for his performance in The Brutalist, a sweeping period drama about a Hungarian-Jewish Holocaust survivor navigating the American Dream. Initially favored at -145 in December, his odds have shortened to -250, reflecting strong industry support.
Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) remains a popular choice among bettors, holding 53.3% of the tickets, but Brody has dominated the handle at 71.5%. Given the Academy’s appreciation for transformative performances in historical dramas, Brody’s portrayal has the depth and gravitas that voters typically reward. While Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) are lurking as longshots, Brody’s steady climb in the odds suggests he’s firmly in the driver’s seat.
Best Actress: Mikey Madison, Anora (+220)
The Best Actress race is shaping up to be a tight battle between Mikey Madison (Anora) and Demi Moore (The Substance). While Moore remains the odds-on favorite at -285, Madison has seen her odds improve from +275 to +220, making her a compelling value bet.
Madison delivers a powerhouse performance as Anora, capturing the raw emotion, humor, and heartbreak of her character’s journey. While The Substance has earned buzz for Moore’s transformation, its horror-heavy, body-horror aesthetic could work against her when it comes to Academy voting. The Oscars have historically been hesitant to award genre performances, which could open the door for Madison to pull off the upset.
With 41.9% of the tickets and 57.9% of the handle backing her, Madison has both industry respect and betting momentum on her side. If Anora continues to dominate awards season, Madison could ride that wave to a Best Actress win.
Final Thoughts
The 2025 Oscars are shaping up to be a historic night, with Anora leading the way as the Best Picture and Best Director favorite, Adrien Brody positioned for a career-defining win, and Mikey Madison gaining momentum in the Best Actress race. While there’s still time for shifts in the betting markets, these picks offer the best value heading into Hollywood’s biggest night.
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