A lot has changed since the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears last met 23 months ago.
Jerod Mayo was still the Patriots’ head coach, while Matt Eberflus was leading the Bears.
Of the 22 offensive and defensive starters for New England in that game, only seven remain on the roster: Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry, Michael Onwenu, Ben Brown, Marcus Jones and Christian Gonzalez.
Chicago has retained 10 of its 22 starters: Caleb Williams, D’Andre Swift, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, Montez Sweat, T.J. Edwards, Kyler Gordon, Elijah Hicks, Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson.
Since then, both franchises have undergone significant overhauls, with their young quarterbacks taking major steps forward in their second seasons under new head coaches. Maye and Mike Vrabel led the Patriots to a 14-3 record and a Super Bowl appearance, while Williams and Ben Johnson helped the Bears finish 11-6 and reach the divisional round. Both teams more than doubled their win totals from the 2024 season.
Now, the Patriots and Bears enter Thursday night’s matchup with identical 4-2 records, setting up a meeting between two teams looking to build on breakout seasons.
Here are three things to watch.
Can the Patriots pressure Caleb Williams?
Williams leads the NFL in completion percentage this season, completing 66 of his 91 pass attempts (72.5%).
However, that number drops significantly when he faces pressure.
Of his 25 incompletions this season, 18 have come under pressure (72%). When pressured, Williams has completed just 12 of 30 attempts for 122 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. His 40.0% completion rate under pressure ranks 31st among 33 qualified quarterbacks, ahead of only Bo Nix (32.7%) and Michael Penix Jr. (37.9%).
When not facing pressure, Williams has completed 54 of 61 attempts (88.5%). According to Next Gen Stats, he went 24-for-24 on unpressured attempts against the Falcons last week, setting a new record for the most completions without an incompletion on unpressured passes in a single game in the Next Gen Stats era.
Through three games this season, Williams has taken nine sacks and faced pressure on 42.5% of his dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. He has also scrambled on 11.5% of his dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate among qualified quarterbacks, according to Next Gen Stats.
Generating pressure against Williams will be key for the Patriots, particularly with the quarterback playing just his second game since returning from the hamstring injury that sidelined him for three contests. Williams has faced a blitz on 53.1% of his dropbacks this season, the highest rate in the NFL. He is the only one of 33 qualified quarterbacks to be blitzed on more than half of his dropbacks.
Slowing down the run
The Bears enter Week 7 with the NFL’s top rushing attack, leading the league in total rushing yards (964), rushing attempts (216) and rushing yards per game (160.7). They rank second in rushing touchdowns (13) and third in runs of 10 or more yards (31), while averaging 4.5 yards per carry, the 11th-highest mark in the league. Chicago has rushed for at least 100 yards in four of its six games, including two performances of more than 200 yards.
On paper, the Patriots have done a solid job defending the run, allowing the 10th-fewest rushing yards in the league (551) and the 12th-fewest yards per carry (3.9). They have given up just five rushing touchdowns and 14 runs of 10 or more yards. However, New England has had its struggles at times, as it showed last week against 6-foot-1, 235-pound Braelon Allen.
The Patriots, who are allowing the fewest rushing yards before contact in the NFL this season (0.58 per carry), will need to get Chicago’s ball carriers to the ground quickly and prevent the Bears from establishing their ground game, which Ben Johnson is going to commit to.
Can the Patriots give Drake Maye time to throw?
The Patriots enter Thursday night’s matchup banged up on offense, particularly along the offensive line.
New England has already ruled out left guard Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring) and right guard Ben Brown (knee), while right tackle Morgan Moses (foot) is questionable.
On Wednesday, head coach Mike Vrabel said Walter Rouse and Matt Pryor will start against the Bears. That likely leaves the Patriots with Will Campbell at left tackle, Rouse at left guard, Jared Wilson at center, Pryor at right guard, and Moses at right tackle. If Moses can’t play, rookie Caleb Lomu could get the start.
Despite the injuries and lineup changes, New England’s offensive line has done a tremendous job over the last two weeks of giving Drake Maye time to push the ball downfield. Since Week 4, Maye has completed 23 of 37 passes (62.1%) for 493 yards, seven touchdowns and zero interceptions on throws traveling at least 10 air yards.
On throws of 20 or more air yards, Maye has completed eight of 15 attempts (53.3%) for 279 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions over that span.
The Bears’ defense has been vulnerable to big plays this season, allowing 22 completions of 20 or more yards and four touchdowns on those plays, tied for the most in the NFL. Chicago is also allowing 7.1 yards per pass play, the fifth-highest mark in the league.
If New England’s reshuffled offensive line can give Maye enough time in the pocket, opportunities for big plays downfield should be there.
