The Patriots and Packers have followed remarkably similar paths through the first eight weeks of the season.
Both teams opened 1-2, putting together underwhelming starts before responding with three-game winning streaks. Both then suffered losses in Week 7, bounced back with wins in Week 8, and enter Week 9 with identical 5-3 records.
“This is a big game for us,” safety Kevin Byard said. “This is a huge game, to be real. We haven’t beaten an NFC team just yet. This is going to be a huge challenge for us as a team. I almost want to say a measuring-stick game because both of these teams are 5-3, both of these teams are trying to keep pace with the other teams in the division, us being Buffalo, and obviously, the NFC North is really good this year. I think both coaches are preaching the same thing. I’m not gonna call it a must-win, but we need to get this win at home.”
So, what do the Patriots need to do to come out of Sunday's matchup as the team that improves to 6-3?
Here are three things to watch as the Patriots look to improve to 4-0 at home, which would mark their best home start since winning their first five games at Gillette Stadium in 2019.
Limiting the big plays through the air
When asked what he saw from Green Bay on film, Mike Vrabel immediately pointed to the Packers' big-play ability, specifically in the passing game.
“Nobody's had more 20-yard pass plays,” Vrabel said. “A quarterback that's wildly efficient. He has a few off days, but they're few and far between. They throw shots. They've obviously got great speed on the edges. They have an excellent tight end, Tucker Kraft, and now, getting [Josh] Jacobs back, it seems like they're trying to work him back in there a little bit more and see what he can do for them in the red zone and things like that.”
According to Next Gen Stats, Packers quarterback Jordan Love leads the NFL with 21 completions of 25 or more yards. His three touchdown passes of 40 or more yards this season rank second in the league, behind Drake Maye's four.
Love also leads the NFL with 2,246 passing yards this season. Of those, 1,253 (55.7%) have come on downfield passes (10 or more air yards), the most in the league. However, his 47.6% completion rate on downfield throws ranks 14th-lowest in the NFL.
Love has attempted 46 passes traveling at least 20 air yards, 14 more than the next closest quarterback, Maye (32). He has completed 13 of those attempts (28.3%) for 493 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions.
Christian Watson (42 receptions on 66 targets for 708 yards and six touchdowns) and Matthew Golden (43 receptions on 82 targets for 619 yards and four touchdowns) will be the receiving threats to watch for Green Bay, averaging 16.9 and 14.4 yards per reception, respectively. According to Next Gen Stats, Watson (211) and Golden (197) have the third- and fifth-most deep receiving yards in the NFL this season. They are also the only pair of teammates to crack the league's top 10 in that category.
“I think he’s [Jordan Love] one of the most underrated quarterbacks in this league,” Byard said. “I know he doesn’t get put in the top 10 lists sometimes, but he’s very efficient. He’s leading the league in passing yardage right now; he’s having a career year, and a lot of it is because of those deep ball shots. I think Christian Watson may be the fastest receiver in the league. He’s always a big-play threat anytime he touches the ball. Matthew Golden, a second-year player, has a lot of juice. He’s building a really good rapport. I know he’s dropped some passes and stuff like that, but he’s getting open. He’s creating separation. This team lives off of taking shots. They’re an explosive play team, a vertical passing team, so this will be a huge challenge for us as a defense.”
Limiting Green Bay's big plays through the air will be critical for the Patriots, particularly given how much the Packers have struggled to generate offense on the ground.
Green Bay has produced a league-low 485 rushing yards this season (60.6 per game), averaging just 2.9 yards per attempt, also the lowest mark in the NFL. Packers ball carriers are averaging just 1.7 yards before contact per rushing attempt.
Since returning after missing six games while on the NFL commissioner's exempt list, Jacobs has totaled just 75 yards on 32 attempts, averaging 2.3 yards per carry.
Taking care of the football
The Patriots have yet to play a turnover-free game this season. They and the Chargers are the only two teams in the NFL that have turned the ball over in every game. New England has committed multiple turnovers in five of its eight games.
The Packers' defense, meanwhile, has recorded 15 takeaways this season. After forcing just two turnovers in the first two weeks, Green Bay has forced 13 over the last five games, recording multiple takeaways in each contest. That includes a five-turnover performance against the Bears in Week 5, though it's worth noting Chicago was playing backup quarterbacks Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum in that game.
The Packers' 10 interceptions are the third-most in the NFL. They have also recovered five fumbles, with 16.7% of opponents' drives ending in a turnover.
Safeties Xavier McKinney and Evan Williams have combined for five interceptions, while linebacker Ty'Ron Hooper has two. Six different Packers have recorded an interception this season.
However, Maye has done a much better job with the football recently. After throwing seven interceptions through the first four weeks of the season, he has thrown just one over his last four games.
“This is a really well-coached defense, no question,” offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels said. “(Green Bay Defensive coordinator) Jonathan Gannon, I’ve known him for a long time. He’s tremendous in terms of being sound and complicated at the same time. That’s not always an easy thing to do on defense. They don’t give up a lot of big plays, and so they make you drive it. That’s one. Two, they challenge you with their front; it's physical, violent. They’re fast at the second level. They’re very instinctive in the secondary. I think the two safeties and the star, the nickel, are as good as we’ve played in terms of reading the quarterback and finding the football. There’s a lot of eyes on the football because this is mostly a zone team. So, if you make a mistake, there’s going to be a lot of Packers that see it.”
The numbers back up McDaniels' assessment of Green Bay's ability to limit explosive plays. The Packers' defense has allowed 16 completions of 20 or more air yards this season, the fourth-fewest in the NFL. On intermediate passes of 10-19 yards, they have allowed just 63 completions, the sixth-fewest in the league. They rank third in the NFL in explosive-play rate allowed at 3.4%, trailing only the Seahawks and 49ers.
Getting to the quarterback
The Packers have the lowest pass-blocking (50.2) and run-blocking (45.7) grades in the NFL, according to PFF. Love has faced pressure on 37.5% of his dropbacks, the 13th-highest rate among qualified passers. He has been pressured on 107 of his league-high 312 pass attempts (34.2%). When under pressure, Love has completed 53 of 107 attempts (49.5%) for 704 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions.
Only Daniel Jones (130), Bryce Young (126), and Deshaun Watson (124) have been pressured more often than Love (123).
Much of Green Bay's offensive line struggles can be attributed to the injuries it has dealt with this season. According to Next Gen Stats, the Packers have used seven different offensive line combinations that have played at least 10 snaps together. They have also used 11 different starting offensive linemen.
“Those guys, they’re still NFL players, too, but knowing that they’ve got backups in there, we’ve got to take advantage of that,” Milton Williams said. “We’re not taking them lightly, but also knowing the type of guys that we’ve got, we want to take advantage of that in every matchup that we get. I look forward to us doing that.”
