The Celtics’ postseason run will begin the same way their regular season did: at TD Garden against the Philadelphia 76ers.
With a 109-97 win over the Orlando Magic in the 7-8 play-in game, Philadelphia secured the matchup, setting up a first-round series with Boston.
This will be the 23rd playoff meeting between the franchises, the most in NBA history. The Celtics have won 15 of those series, including all three in the Jayson Tatum/Jaylen Brown era (2018, 2020, 2023).
Game 1 is set for Sunday at 1:00 p.m., giving the Celtics a six-day break between the end of the regular season and the start of the playoffs.
Here are five initial thoughts on the series:
Most of their games were played before the Celtics figured themselves out
The Celtics and 76ers split their season series, 2-2, but it doesn’t quite tell the full story.
They met twice in Boston’s first six games and three times in the first 12. Three of the four matchups came before November 11, when the Celtics were 5-7, sitting 11th in the Eastern Conference and still figuring themselves out. Boston went 1-2 in those games, with Philadelphia’s two wins coming by a combined three points.
The final meeting came on March 1, a 16-point Celtics win.
Additionally, all four matchups occurred before Jayson Tatum’s return, further skewing the sample.
There is still plenty to take away from their four regular-season meetings, but they’re not fully reflective of where these teams are now.
What is Joel Embiid’s status?
Joel Embiid underwent an appendectomy last Thursday after being diagnosed with appendicitis, and there has been no update on his return timeline.
According to Jeff Stotts, who runs the NBA injury database In Street Clothes, the average recovery time for an appendectomy is 23 days, which would sideline the 2023 MVP for most of, if not the entire series.
Embiid missed two games against the Celtics this season (11/11 and 3/1), and in those games, Boston’s bigs took advantage.
In the first one, Neemias Queta finished with 8 points, 10 rebounds, two assists, and two blocks, while Luka Garza finished with nine points and eight rebounds.
In the second Embiid-less game, Quetta exploded for a career-high 27 points, 17 rebounds, two assists, and three blocks, as Nikola Vucevic finished with 11 points, 12 rebounds (three offensive), and a block. He had five points and six rebounds in six fourth-quarter minutes alone, helping fend off a second-half push by the 76ers.
The 76ers will turn to Andre Drummond and Adem Bona in Embiid’s absence, which, although both played well in the Play-In, will be a favorable matchup for the Celtics, as Queta and Garza will be getting their first taste of NBA playoff minutes, and Vucevic looks to build off a strong close to the season.
How do the Celtics slow down Tyrese Maxey?
The 76ers have a middle-of-the-pack defense. They finished 17th in defensive rating (114.4) and allowed 116.1 points per game (19th). Across four games, Jaylen Brown averaged 27.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 5.8 assists. Derrick White averaged 19.8 points, 5.8 assists, and 4.5 rebounds. Neemias Queta averaged 14.0 points — the most against any team this season — along with 9.8 rebounds and 1.3 assists.
Add Jayson Tatum to the mix, who has historically dominated the 76ers in the postseason, averaging 26.8 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 3.8 assists across 16 games, and with no Embiid, the Celtics should be well-positioned to generate offense. There are simply too many areas of the 76ers’ defense for Boston to attack.
So how do the Celtics slow down the 76ers — specifically Tyrese Maxey, who averaged 30.0 points (41.8% FG, 51.4% 3PT) against Boston across their four meetings?
In their final two matchups, even though he scored a combined 54 points, Maxey shot just 17-of-51 (33.3%) from the field. In the first of those games, Jordan Walsh took the primary assignment and held the All-Star guard to 1-of-9 (11.1%) shooting. In the second, Baylor Scheierman drew the matchup and limited him to 3-of-10 (30%) shooting.
Perhaps now that it’s the postseason, Jaylen Brown reassumes the role of guarding the opposing team’s best top scorer, a responsibility he has long taken pride in. If not, Walsh and Scheierman have already shown they are more than capable.
With Embiid out, more pressure shifts to the rest of Philadelphia’s roster, perhaps none more than rookie VJ Edgecombe. But it’s a significant ask for him to serve as an offensive engine against a Celtics defense that allowed the fewest points per game (107.2) and finished fourth in defensive efficiency (111.7).
If the Celtics can limit Maxey, it’s going to be hard for Philadelphia to win.
Can the Celtics carry over their offensive rebounding dominance?
Offensive rebounding was a massive part of the Celtics’ identity this season.
They posted a 33.9% offensive rebounding rate, sixth-best in the NBA, which translated to 16.9 second-chance points per game, the fifth-most in the league. The Celtics were also one of just eight teams to record 1,000 or more offensive rebounds, finishing with 1,025.
That strength could come into play against the 76ers, especially with their second-leading rebounder (Joel Embiid) sidelined.
Opponents grabbed 32.3% of their missed shots against Philadelphia this season, the fourth-highest rate in the league. Rebounding, specifically on the defense end, has been a clear weakness for the 76ers, which bodes well for a Celtics team that went 43-12 when outrebounding opponents and 26-3 when posting an offensive rebounding percentage of 32% or higher.
Can the Celtics make quick work in the first round again?
One of the defining traits of the Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown era has been their ability to make quick work of opponents in the first round. Since 2019, they’ve recorded three first-round sweeps and two five-game series wins. The lone exception was a six-game series against the Hawks in 2023.
The Celtics, who have finished as the No. 2 seed or better in five straight seasons, are typically far superior to their first-round opponents.
This year is no different. The 76ers went 18-33 against teams .500 or better this season. Against teams in the top 10 in point differential, they were 9-20.
If the Celtics take care of business and play to their standard, this series should follow a familiar script as the recent first-round matchups.
Prediction: Celtics in four
