Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes: A betting history

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Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes are getting ready for their Super Bowl LV matchup, in what will be the biggest quarterback age gap in Super Bowl history. With 18 years, one month and 14 days between them, Brady, 43, is technically, I guess, old enough to be 25-year-old Mahomes’ father.

Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will be looking to defend their championship title and repeat, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback will be striving to continue cementing his GOAT legacy.

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Brady is preparing with ocean-view sunset Instagram pictures hugging his wife, Gisele Bundchen, while Mahomes beat his adversary in posting a hype video.

The two quarterbacks have met four times before in their careers, including in Week 12 of this past season where Kansas City won on the road, 27-24. The Chiefs are 3-point favorites heading into Super Bowl LV. Against Mahomes, Brady is 2-2 both straight up and against the spread.

In anticipation of this matchup, let’s take a look at all the times Brady and Mahomes have faced each other and how this might play into what happens at Raymond James Stadium on Feb. 7.

Odds courtesy of Pro Football Reference 

Oct. 14, 2018: Patriots (-3.5) 43 Chiefs 40

Brady got the best of Mahomes in their first meeting in Week 6 of the 2018 season. Mahomes had just turned 23 years old when he was edged out by the Patriots and their then-41-year-old quarterback. Brady threw for 340 yards and one touchdown, while Mahomes bested Brady in this category, finishing with 352 yards and four touchdowns.

Despite winning, the Patriots gave up a major 24-9 halftime lead. They allowed the Chiefs and Mahomes to score 17 points in the third quarter and 14 in the fourth. The Patriots did come back and score 16 in the fourth quarter with Brady leading a drive in the final minute that ended in the game-winning field goal.

Jan. 20, 2019: Patriots (+3) 37 Chiefs 31

The Super Bowl will be the second time Brady and Mahomes have faced each other in the postseason, with the first being this AFC Championship Game. Again, Mahomes was the favorite here. The game was a back and forth instant classic with the Pats surviving in overtime. Brady threw for 348 yards and one touchdown. Mahomes had 295 yards and three touchdowns.

The key moment in the game was Chiefs DE Dee Ford lining up offsides on a play where Brady threw what would have been a game-clinching interception for Kansas City. If not for that offsides, the Chiefs may be going for a three-peat on Sunday. The Patriots went on to beat the Rams for their sixth Super Bowl title.

Dec. 8, 2019: Chiefs (+3) 23 Patriots 16

Mahomes went into this game the underdog and finished as the victor over Brady, by his biggest margin yet. The Chiefs’ QB racked up 283 yards with one touchdown in this Week 14 win, while Brady had 169 yards and one touchdown of his own.

The Chiefs then, of course, went on to win the Super Bowl and Brady went on to move to Florida. Which brings us to...

Nov. 29, 2020: Chiefs (-3.5) 27 Buccaneers 24

The last time Brady and Mahomes faced each other this past season the Chiefs got the best of the Buccaneers. Mahomes threw for a whopping 462 yards and three touchdowns. Brady finished with 345 yards and three touchdowns of his own. One thing to note about this game: The Chiefs jumped out to a 20-7 halftime lead but it was Brady and the Bucs who dominated the second half, out-scoring KC 17-7.

Based on these matchups, I’m guessing the score in Super Bowl LV will be kept close and we’ll see a quarterback duel for the ages. With all three games being decided by a touchdown or less, it’s probably wise to take the points on Sunday, especially if you can get the Bucs +3.5.

Lucy is a sports betting content producer with Radio.com and BetQL. She has worked with WEEI and Radio.com as a writer, radio producer and podcaster. Lucy lives in Boston and loves Tom Brady and prop bets. ​Follow Lucy on Twitter at @LucilleBurdge.

Featured Image Photo Credit: Getty Images