PHILADELPHIA (KYW Newsradio) — Could the Philadelphia region get a white Christmas this year? Without making too many promises, Accuweather’s long-range winter weather forecast, published on Monday, tells us some of what we can expect.
Paul Pastelock is Accuweather's senior meteorologist and also the company’s lead long-range forecaster. He says predicted snow accumulation will be below average but higher than last year.
"The pattern does look a little different from last year."
Last season, Philly got around 11 inches of snow, he says. But in the upcoming season, "we're going about 15 to 20 inches.” The average is 23 inches to 24 inches.
"And the reason why we're not going too high, despite the change in the pattern, is because of the fact that we may have some mixing events that are gonna hold down our snow amounts during the course of the season," Pastelock said.
"As we get into the mid-part of the season, there's gonna be a lot of mild Pacific air that travels across the country, and we see that kind of setup a lot of times. The precipitation is not always all snow here in Philadelphia."
Pastelock says the region could get some colder pockets in December and snow is possible. "It doesn't happen that often, but we do see it once in a while, and it could happen early this year.”
He says there will probably be some mixing in the mid season and then a possible surge towards the end.
So if you're looking forward to a white Christmas, Pastelock says, keep your hopes up.
“It may not be a full fledged storm but — hey, just to get some flakes in the air would be really nice, definitely, compared to the last few years.”
The last white Christmas was recorded in 2009, and that did not include any snow on Christmas Day. The last time the Philly region saw an inch or more of snow accumulation on the holiday was in 2002 — with only 1 1/2 inches.
Accuweather has some concerns about late February and March, however. If the polar vortex should get displaced and come to this region, it could bring us more stormy and colder weather patterns, and the snow levels in the forecast could go higher.
An updated winter weather forecast is expected in mid-November.