The Department of Defense has shown a promising decline in new COVID-19 cases in recent weeks -- but efforts to increase testing may reverse this trend.
For the first month after DoD began tracking and releasing data on the number of COVID-19 cases across the force, the number of new cases per week steadily increased from 326 new cases the first week to 1,723 cases the fifth week. However, after peaking during the fifth week of reporting -- the week from April 15 to April 22 -- the number of new cases started to decrease. During the most recent week of data -- from April 29 to May 6 -- DoD only reported 642 new cases.
Wednesday's data release will reveal whether this downward trend will continue to hold for another week -- especially as an effort to increase testing across the force is underway.
As additional service members are tested, outbreaks within asymptomatic populations could be revealed. The DoD rolled out a four-tiered testing plan with the intention of testing 60,000 service members per day come June.
Can you guess who's at the top of the DoD's COVID-19 testing priority list?
The top tier and highest priority for testing includes those directly involved in counter-terrorism efforts. After Tier 1 comes Tier 2 — service members stationed outside of the United States in places like Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Tier 3 includes those forward deployed in non-combat zones such as Europe or those returning from deployments. And, finally, Tier 4 is the rest of the force.
The tiered testing system is still being adjusted as additional information regarding how COVID-19 is impacting the force comes to light. Additionally, the number of tests senior DoD leadership sees necessary has fluctuated significantly in recent weeks. When the tiered testings system was first rolled out, senior DoD leadership said they aimed to test 60,000 service members per day come June. Now, they hope to eventually be able to test 56,000 per week -- and they don't think more testing than that is necessary.
"There's not a need to test the entire force," Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said at a Pentagon press briefing last week. "That would not be a good use of tests. Again, when you look at those tier four groups of folks who aren't deploying, are not on a strategic mission capability et cetera, people like us, unless you're symptomatic, you probably don't need a test."
Instead, Milley explained, the DoD will use what it's calling "sentinel testing" to hopefully catch outbreaks early -- without needing to constantly test and retest service members.
Meanwhile, COVID-19 has begun to impact even those at the highest seniority levels within the DoD. While the Navy's top admiral went into self-isolation over the weekend after coming in contact with a COVID-positive family member, the chief of the National Guard Bureau himself tested positive.
Navy's top admiral self-isolates, National Guard chief tests positive
As of Monday, the Department of Defense reported just over 8,000 cases of COVID-19 across the force.
The number of DoD-affiliated fatalities has held steady at 27 for over a week now, and approximately 3,500 COVID-positive individuals have been classified as "recovered."
