Kings vs. Hornets Preview – By the Numbers
The Kings are finally back home to host the Hornets as they look to make it 3 wins in a row. They took care of business against Detroit, and have a similar game tonight against Charlotte that they really should win. The Hornets lost to the Nuggets last night, and so far this year, are 1-3 on the 2nd nights of their back-to-backs. Let’s take a look at how the Kings can light the beam tonight.
The Hornets come into the game with the lowly combination of the 30th ranked offense and 28th ranked defense. The defense isn’t a huge surprise, as they had the 22nd ranked defense last year, but the offensive drop-off from 8th last year to 30th this year is a big surprise. They are shooting 44.2% from the field, 32.4% from 3, and 50.6% on 2-point attempts, all dead last in the league. Their 74.4% at the Free Throw line isn’t much better at 26th.
When you break it down by area on the court, the numbers don’t look any better. They shoot 61.9% in the Restricted Area and 35.7% in the Non-RA Paint, both of which are worst in the NBA. Their Mid-Range FG% is 37.9% is 24th, and their 30.8% on Above the Break 3’s is also last in the league. The only place where they are near average on the court is the corner 3, where their 37.5% ranks 17th. The main thing that worries me about the Hornets is their transition game. They average 19.2 Points off of Turnovers, 4th most in the NBA. On the season, the Kings are giving up 18.6 Points off of their Turnovers, 11th most in the league.
One of the most interesting stats that stood out to me was how many times the Hornets get their shots blocked. Opponents are averaging 6.9 blocks per game, which leads the league by far. Blocking shots has not been a strong suite of the Kings this year, but they have climbed out of the cellar and are now 29th in the league with 3.3 per game. There has been a recent uptick in the Kings shot blocking, and this would be a great game against a team that gets shots swatted away a ton to continue that momentum.
On the individual side, the player to watch will be LaMelo Ball, who will be playing in his 6th game of the season. In his 6 games, he’s averaged 23.2 Points, 6.7 Assists, and 3.2 Rebounds on 45.5/38.8/86.7% shooting splits. While the numbers look good, they have not translated to wins, as the Hornets have gone 1-5 in the games he’s played in. This is a great example of a game where you know exactly who you need to shut down to win it. They can either let LaMelo get his and keep the others from scoring, or vice versa. They just can’t let both happen.
For the Kings, an area that they could look to take advantage in tonight is the Non-Restricted Paint area. Known as the floater range, the Kings are shooting 48.3% in the spot, which is 2nd best in the NBA. Conversely, the Hornets opponents are shooting 49.5% in the zone, highest in the league. Sacramento has multiple people doing extremely well in this spot this year; Huerter – 55.8%, Fox – 52.5%, Sabonis – 50.7%, and Davis – 50.0%. The reason this area will be so important is because Charlotte limits opponents to just 63.1% at the rim, 5th lowest in the league. If the Hornets are converging at the rim, look for the Kings to take advantage of the open looks just outside of the rim.
Last but certainly not least for something to keep an eye on is the backup center spot. Against the Pistons, Chimezie Metu got all of the backup center minutes in the 1st half, but in the 2nd half, they all went to Richaun Holmes. It was a total of 7:08 minutes between the two players, but it seems like one of the things the Kings are still searching for is what to do long term in the backup big spot. In his 3 minutes, Holmes made his 1 field goal, had 1 Rebound, and 1 Assist. Metu went 0-of-3, had 1 Rebound, 1 Steal, and 1 Turnover. It may not seem important, but those 7 minutes of action are huge in the grand scheme. It will be interesting to see if they continue to tinker with the options they have in Metu and Holmes, promote Queta more often, or look for help via trade.
