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Sacramento Kings

Kings vs. Nuggets Preview – By the Numbers

By espn1320 Dec 27, 2022

After what feels like a very long 3 days, the Kings are back in action to take on the visiting Nuggets for the first matchup in a two-game series at home. All of Sacramento is holding their breath waiting for updates on the hopeful All-Star Domantas Sabonis, who is currently listed as questionable for the game tonight. The Kings big has not missed a game this season, meaning we don’t know what this team will look like for a full game without him. Let’s look at what’s coming against one of the top opponents in the West.

You can’t talk about the Nuggets without starting with the two-time reigning MVP, Nikola Jokić. Jokić is averaging 25.4 Points, 11.0 Rebounds, and 9.4 Assists with 61.6/33.8/79.0% shooting splits. He’s the only person putting up at least 25, 11, and 9 and is once again doing everything on the court for Denver. The only big that comes close to matching his overall production in so many facets of the game is in fact Sabonis, which is why it will be key if he can play tonight or not. Sabonis doesn’t have quite as big of numbers as Jokić, but he’s at 17.9 Points, 12.4 Rebounds, and 6.7 Assists with 61.2/38.9/74.6% splits. Watching the two highly skilled bigs is always an exciting matchup, and one that I mark on my calendar as a must watch whenever the teams square off.

As a team, the Nuggets rely heavily on their passing, which starts with Jokić, but doesn’t end there. They average 305.0 Passes per game, 4th most in the league, and get 28.3 Assists per night, 2nd most. The Kings will have to make sure their defensive rotations are on point as the Nuggets whip the ball around. They’ve done a great job of that so far this season, leading the league in limiting opponent Wide-Open 3PA’s. Sacramento only gives up 13 wide-open looks from deep per game, fewest in the NBA. The Nuggets only take 13.2 Wide-Open 3PA’s per game, 2nd least in the league. It will be key for the Kings to try and limit the Nuggets good looks as much as possible since that is not a strength for Denver.

The reason it will be so important is because the Nuggets don’t take many shots from beyond the arc. They only shoot 30.0 3’s per game, 2nd least in the league, but they make them at a 38.8% clip, 2nd best in the league. They rely on their quality over quantity from deep to generate their points from deep, and run an extremely disciplined offense when it comes to shot selection.

For the Kings from deep, they are coming off of another tough shooting night against the Wizards. They were just 10-of-32 (31.3%) from beyond the arc. The Kings, who once led the league in 3-Point percentage, have slowly slipped down to 15th in 3P% for the season at 35.5%. Where they continue to do the most damage is inside. They continue to lead the league in 2-Point percentage at 56.7%. They do their best when they at least get inside touches, whether the possession ends in an attempt at the rim or is kicked out for a 3.

Denver’s opponents are shooting 71.1% in the Restricted Area, 2nd highest in the NBA. It will be vital for the Kings to try and get inside against the Nuggets and take advantage of the weak spot in their defense. The added benefit to that plan would be to try and get Jokić into foul trouble and disrupt their gameplan.

If Sabonis is out, the Kings will need someone to step up. The age old saying in sports is next man up, and the Kings will indeed be spreading the message if their star big is out at all. Whether it be Fox taking on more on offense, Queta or another big stepping in to fill the huge minutes void left by Sabonis, or all players upping their production slightly, the Kings will need more to cover for the time being. Ideally, we won’t have to see it tonight, but odds are high that at some point this season Sabonis will miss a game. Until we see it, it will be a huge question mark for this team going froward.

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