Kings vs. Thunder Preview – By the Numbers
The storms may be over but the Thunder are coming to town to try and fight off the beam. The Kings are back after a short 2-game road trip to take on OKC as they look to extend their winning streak to 6. Everyone thought the Thunder would be a tanking team, but they have a 4-game winning streak of their own going, and have won 6 of their last 7. Let’s see what the Kings can do to keep to their winning ways.
It’s hard to start talking about the Thunder without starting with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. His 30.5 Points per game is 5th in the NBA, and he’s also chipping in 4.9 Rebounds, 5.5 Assists, and 1.7 Steals per contest. With shooting splits of 50.1/34.5/90.8%, he can score from pretty much everywhere on the court, and it should be a fun matchup between him and Fox. Last year, SGA shot 7-of-14 from the field and 2-of-4 from 3 when guarded by Fox. Comparatively, Fox only shot 10 Field Goals when guarded by Shai, making 5 of them.
The primary defender that the Thunder put on Fox was Lu Dort, and it was highly successful. Fox went 2-of-14 (14.3%) when guarded by the 6’4” guard. Dort, one of the best defenders in the league, will likely have more time on Fox tonight. It will be interesting to see how the rematch goes this year after Dort won the battle last season.
As a team, the Thunder are an exciting young team. Part of that excitement lies in their ability to disrupt opponents and cause Turnovers. OKC averages 20.6 Points off of Turnovers per game, 2nd most in the NBA. Sacramento has done a good job taking care of the ball this year, as they are tied for 17th with 14.2 Turnovers per game. It will be key to take care of the ball against a team who likes to get into opponents.
With that aggressive defense though comes the downside for the Thunder. Being handsy may lead to forcing Turnovers, but it also leads to a lot of fouls. OKC average 21.8 fouls per game, 4th most in the NBA, and opponents are shooting 25.8 Free Throws per game, 2nd most. The Kings are great at getting to the line, average 25.0 freebies per night (11th). Between Fox and Barnes, Sacramento has the ability to get downhill and into defenders to earn shots at the line.
Another area where the Kings should win is the Rebound battle. OKC is one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA. Thunder opponents are averaging 47.4 Rebounds per game, most in the NBA, and OKC gives up 16.0 2nd Chance Points per game, also most in the league. It has a direct impact on the Thunder’s game outcome as well. When they win the rebound battle, they are 11-6. When they lose, they are 10-16. The Kings aren’t the best rebounding team in the league, but they should at least look to break even with the Thunder tonight.
Another key aspect will be if Sabonis is still out. Richaun Holmes stepped up big time last game, but you can see the offense has a different look and feel to it without Sabonis leading the way. The key stat I’ll be watching if he is out again is the Kings 3-point shooting. While it isn’t Sabonis out there shooting high volume from deep, he is responsible for creating the majority of the Kings looks from beyond the arc.
In the two games that Sabonis hasn't played in this season, the Kings have shot 19-of-65 (29.3%) from 3. Two games isn’t a big sample size, but it is something to keep an eye on.
In the end though, the Kings got the win and that’s all that matters. Ugly wins, offensive explosions, and masterclass games all count the same, and right now it adds up to the 3rd seed in the west for the Kings. What a time to be alive.
