Kings vs. Warriors Preview – By the Numbers
By: Will Z
The Kings come back home and bring a familiar foe with them. For the 3rd time in 12 games, the Kings and Warriors face off, with the Kings still looking for their first win against the defending champs. It took a season high 47 Points from Steph last game for Golden State to beat Sacramento, so the main question today is; how do you slow down Steph?
Curry is having another MVP caliber year so far, and he’s scoring from everywhere on the court with extremely high percentages. He’s shooting 77.8% in the Restricted Area, 48.6% in the Non-RA Paint, 65.5% from Mid-Range, 50% on Corner threes, and 44.5% on Above the Break threes. Not only is he scoring 33.3 Points a night, but his 2.5 Turnovers per game is his lowest mark since 2011-12, and his 6.8 Rebounds is a career high.
The fun thing about this being their 3rd matchup so early in the season is that there are stats to look back on from multiple games between the Kings and Warriors. Domantas Sabonis has defended the most Curry Field Goals in the two prior games, with Curry going 13 of 17 (76.5%) against the Kings big man. Fox is next on the team with 9 defended FG’s, of which Curry has made 6 for 66.7%. The Warriors are one of the best screening teams in the league, leading the league with 28.7 Screen Assists Points per game, and often find the matchups they want with the movement in their offense. Davion Mitchell has only defended 2 FG’s shot by Curry in the two games, and Curry missed both shots. Credit Golden State for running actions to get Mitchell off of Curry, and also credit Mitchell for forcing Curry to pass. The Curry-Mitchell matchup may be a key deciding factor in the game tonight.
The Warriors other weakness remains their Turnovers. They turn it over 16.6 times per game, 4th most in the NBA, and allow the 3rd most Points off Turnovers with 21.4 a night. The Kings are above average in Points off Turnovers, sitting at 10th with 18.7 per contest, and will need all of the easy buckets they can get tonight.
Speaking of easy buckets, look for the Kings to get to the line tonight against the Warriors team committing a league leading 24.2 fouls per game. Their opponents average 29.2 Free Throws per game, and the Kings shot 25 and 29 Free Throws in their first two games. Sacramento has dug out of their early season hole as the worst Free Throw shooting team in the league, and is now shooting 77.7%, 16th in the NBA, on 19.4 FT’s per night, which is 5th most in the league.
Another battle to watch will be the Points in the Paint. In their first matchup, the Kings won 64 – 48, and in the second game the Warriors ever so slightly won with 44-42. Neither of these teams take very many two-point field goals. The Kings take 47.4 a night, 28th in the league, with the Warriors right ahead of them at 48.9, 27th. The amazing thing is that the Kings lead the league shooting 57.4% on their 2P FG’s, and the Warriors are right behind shooting 56.9%. Both of these teams take smart shots inside the arc, and capitalize on their limited opportunities.
The Kings have their two headed monster inside with Fox and Sabonis. The two of them combine to shoot 23 shots in the paint every game with a 65.6% success rate for 15 paint field goals per game. You can pretty much chalk it up that the two of them will combine for about 30 Points in the Paint per game, which feels like the world’s best thunder blanket of comfort. The two of them are playing amazing basketball right now and are living up to the hype of being one of the best dynamic duos in basketball.
