Kings vs. Warriors Series Preview – By the Numbers
Is it Saturday yet? All of Nor-Cal seems to be on edge as we anxiously await this weekend’s tip-off. For the first time ever, the Kings and Warriors have both made the playoffs and ended up drawing each other in the tournament. There has been a lot of posturing back and forth between both fan bases, but for this article, let’s focus on the facts, and dig into what we can expect in the series by the numbers.
The offensive firepower in this series is off the charts, as the Kings led the league with 120.7 Points per game and the Warriors were right behind them with 118.9. The interesting aspect of it is that if you go by Offensive Rating, the Kings ranked 1st, but the Warriors were down at 10th. A reason for that may be the fact that they turned the ball over more than anyone in the league, with 16.3 Turnovers per game. The Turnovers typically come back to bite them, as they gave up 19.4 Points off of the Turnovers, 2nd most in the league.
This all leads into my main X-factor stat of the series, which is the Kings Steals.
Sacramento will need any small advantage they can find against the seasoned Warriors. The reason I have steals as the most important stat of the series is because they tell a two-fold story. It will not only show that the Kings are being active and physical on defense, but help the Kings get easier transition looks on offense.
Another area that the Kings should look to take advantage of is the Non-Restricted Paint Area, aka the Floater Area. Kevon Looney is a very stout defender who consistently has great vertical contests on shots at the rim, but the Warriors as a team allowed opponents to shoot 47.2% in the floater area, the 3rd highest percent in the league. The Kings meanwhile, were killers from the area all season, finishing at a 47.7% clip in the zone.
Fox, Huerter, Sabonis, and Davion all shot over 50% from the spot on the floor. The Warriors’ defense is better than advertised, as they had the 6th ranked defense since the All-Star break. But if there’s a weak spot in their defense at all, this Kings team will find it, and this one is glaring.
While the Kings are a great 3-Point shooting team, the advantage from beyond the arc clearly goes to the Warriors. They led the league with 43.2 3PA’s per game, and made them at a 38.5% clip, 2nd in the league to only the 76ers.
Golden State made 20 or more 3’s a staggering 19 times this season, which was most in the league. They were 15-4 in the games, showing that when they are on from 3, they are extremely hard to beat. The Kings hit 20 or more 3’s 7 times this year (5th most) and were 6-1 in the contests. The Kings have the ability to turn it on from 3 on any given night, but the consistency and volume that the Warriors shoot from deep is nearly unmatchable.
An argument can be made though that when the Kings make their 3’s, they are more unbeatable than the Warriors. If we drop the number of made 3’s to 15, the Warriors still have the higher game count of 54 to 31 for the Kings, but the winning percentages are vastly different. In those 15+ made 3 games, the Warriors went 34-20 (.630). The Kings went 26-5 (.839).
The special part about the Kings offense is that they can beat you in so many different ways. Typically, when their 3’s are falling, they are still attacking the rim or getting to the line. They are able to stack scoring options on one another and when a 3-point barrage is thrown in the mix, good luck slowing them down.
With all of the jump shooting as described above, another advantage opens up for the Kings, and that’s getting to the Free Throw line. Golden State was last in the league with 20.2 Free Throw Attempts per game while the Kings were tied for 5th most with 25.1 per contest. The Kings have a much more balanced offensive approach and get inside more than the Warriors, which naturally leads to more Free Throws.
Fox (6.0), Sabonis (5.5), and Barnes (5.0) all averaged over 5 FTA’s per game and can each hit 10+ attempts on any given night. For the Warriors, Jordan Poole (5.1) and Steph (5.0) shot 5 or more per night, but then there is a drop off to Jonathan Kuminga’s 2.1 per game. Kings fans are nervous about the refs and who will get the better whistle, but if it’s called both ways, this one should theoretically favor the Kings.
This is a fascinating series with two high-powered offenses that should be jam-packed with highlights. By no means am I predicting the Kings will win the series, but I will say with conviction that there is a clear path in the numbers to the Sacramento beating the Warriors. All we can do now is wait and see.
