How will RFK Jr.’s Trump endorsement impact the race?
As delegates gathered in Chicago, Ill., this week to nominate Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate for president, her poll numbers remained above GOP candidate Donald Trump.
After the Democratic National Convention ended, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., made a surprise announcement. Kennedy – who is the member of the well-known family of Democrats that includes former President John F. Kennedy, Jr. – suspended his own campaign and endorsed Trump’s. At the time he was polling at around 4.6%, according to FiveThirtyEight.
How will this announcement impact the election? It’s likely too early to know for sure, but some polling data may provide insight.
ActiVote released poll results collected through Friday that did not include Kennedy. Those results showed that Harris had a “steady” 5.2% lead over Trump.
“The poll was among 1,000 likely presidential election voters and has an average expected error of 3.1%,” said ActiVote.
Another poll from Fairleigh Dickinson University showed that Harris was leading against Trump by a seven-point margin at 50% to 43%. Results from that poll were released Friday, but were collected through last Sunday, when Kennedy was still in the race.
FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate of recent polls collected through Saturday also showed that Harris was in the lead. Its numbers showed the candidates were closer, with Harris at 47.3% and Trump at 43.6%.
Though Kennedy is from a famously Democratic family, his criticism of COVID-19 vaccines and stances on other issues have often been more aligned with sentiments for Republican voters. In an interview with Audacy’s KCBS Radio, Reed Galen, Co-founder of the Lincoln Project, said their research showed that his independent campaign did start to take voters away from Trump.
He said that “really didn’t surprise us because in so many ways, they line up in parallel on many of these… sort of what for them are core issues.”
Earlier this month, Kennedy said he didn’t plan on backing Harris’ campaign after reports that he asked for a position in her cabinet surfaced. He also denied the reports, and in his announcement about backing Trump, hit hard against the Democratic National Committee.
According to Galen, Kennedy went to the Trump campaign to ask for a position even earlier.
“He needed to get out, but he needed to save some face,” said Galen of Kennedy.
Regarding Kennedy’s supporters, Galen said he believes some will go back to Trump. However, he also said that many will probably stay home.
“Remember that a lot of the people that supported Bobby Kennedy were strongly anti-vaccine,” Galen said. “They know Trump has been vaccinated to the gills, for various things. Most importantly for them, COVID-19. I think maybe a few go to Harris, but I wouldn’t expect the Harris campaign is counting on any of those people.”
