DAVE MURRAY’S EXCLUSIVE SPRING FORECAST FOR ST. LOUIS...2026:
We have had our twists and turns this Winter…a heavy duty start, deep, deep cold, mild to warm…with an active storm pattern…St. Louis weather is fun! Even with all those flips…my Winter ideas turned out pretty good…the flips not a surprise with La Nina shutting down and the pattern going neutral.
We move forward.
Winter is not over…we have to get through March…remember…”never trust our weather until after Easter.” That is April 5th this year…this is not about Winter…it is about Spring.
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The average first frost in St. Louis, Missouri is around October 15, and the last frost is around April 15. However, frost dates can vary depending on location, weather, and topography.
Ocean temps are a big deal in short and long range forecasting..The Winter, was the quickly fading LaNina…we hit that hard in the Winter forecast ... .otherwise very little talk about it. We are in a neutral pattern right now and the trend will be to bring back the El Nino but that trend will take several months to unfold…Spring and Summer at the bare minimum. Neutral does play a big part, just like the Winter season.
With a lack of a La Nina or El Nino…the trend is for more variable, locally driven weather rather than large scale patterns. So think more chaotic trends. Fair warning….long and short term forecasts could be a little weird at times. There are many things that are rather fuzzy.
There are about 20 factors that I look at and study when putting these long range forecasts together… And in my book, they all have some heavy weight in the final forecast...and this is just not a quick look. You lose sight of patterns….global…and you lose sight of the forecast.
Here’s a short list...can’t give all my trade secrets away.
The analogs...looking back at past weather and then moving forward to compare what's going on in our atmosphere now… The analogs may be the most important thing in my long range forecast. A few years of interest..1990, 1994, 2001, and 2018
The solar cycle…our sun follows an 11-year cycle of activity. And the current cycle, Solar Cycle 25, began in 2020…and though the max should have happened by now…the sun keeps cooking…so let’s keep the sun active.
World wide volcanoes… Not just the activity but the locations...the earth…volacanes and earthquakes is still rather active.
The ocean patterns...just not the Pacific but all around the world.
Wildfires...where and how intense. Massive smoke clouds rising into the stratosphere...think of it as mimicking the effects of a volcanic eruption…it's typically not a major concern in Spring.
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These are many of the factors that come into play and must be looked at all the time for these seasonal forecasts… So let's get to the details… The Spring season in STL.
FLOODING:
The large scale overall pattern will be interesting…I don’t think we have a risk of long term, big river flooding…the main reasons:
*** We have had a normal amount of rain and snow spread out during the Winter season…not too much at one time (like the northeast) and though we have gotten dry in small stretches…not too dry.
*** Lack of snow cover over the upper Midwest
*** Soil moisture is near normal to maybe a touch on the dry side.
*** Lack of frost in the ground.
*** Low stream flows in all rivers…large and small
With all this said…I’m concerned about a number for thunderstorms and that becomes a concern on the small streams and rivers for flash flooding…up and down rather quickly.
MARCH 2026:
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March Facts:
March 1st…sunrise: 6:33…sunset: 5:54
March 31st...sunrise: 6:48…sunset: 7:23
Average high and low: 56.6/36.7…Records: 92(1929)/-5(1960)
Average rainfall: 3.50”
Average snowfall: 2.3”
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March Dates::
The Full Moon…March 3rd…The worm moon
Daylight Saving Time Begins…March 8th…Spring ahead one hour
St. Patrick’s Day…March 17th
Spring Begins…March 20th
Palm Sunday…March 29th
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The major factors:
*** This could be a really weird month for temps…thinking the first two weeks will bring a fast and consistent warm up…also thinking this will be a false Spring…with the last two weeks of the month bringing the Winter cold back…so let’s think 50-50.
*** When we add up the numbers…March temperatures should be about average
*** The pollen season will get a solid early start.
*** The prime time for cold air intrusions from the north country will be mid and late March…so interest in St. Pats celebrations.
*** Not expecting any cold record low temperatures at night…but certainly thinking a record high or two may be set in the first 15 days of the month.
*** As for moisture...snow is still a factor in the month of March...one of our heaviest snow months of the year. The news of March snow...it can be deep and heavy but typically does not hang around very long.
*** Moisture for the month…snow tough to find for the first half of the month…but a solid shot the last half of the month…the snow season is not over.
*** Snowfall for the snow season…November to early April…still has a ways to go and the snow amounts for the entire season will be a little above average…thanks to that early start to the snow season.
*** Right now the seasonal snow stands at 18-19 inches...the most since 2018 when we had 24.2 inches.
*** We do start to think about severe thunderstorms in March...with the near average temperatures that I’m thinking about…the best shot for action will be the first half and especially when the expected cold shots sweep in the last half of the month…3 maybe 4 severe weather events…above average.
*** Rainfall for the month will be near to a touch below average…but we have to watch locally heavy amounts with the thunderstorm action.
*** Not concerned about flooding on the big rivers… limited snowpack and the overall rivers continue to be low. Any strong to severe thunderstorms will bring some flash flooding on the small streams and creeks… that is a day to day forecast.
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Things to look for in March:
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***the red maples begin to bloom
***the ticks start to appear
***the purple martin arrive...a solid sign of the Spring season
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APRIL 2026:
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April Facts:
April 1st…sunrise: 6:46…sunset: 7:24
April 30th...sunrise: 6:05…sunset: 7:52
Average high and low: 68.0/47.0…Records: 93(2002)/20(1936)
Average rainfall: 4.73”
Average snowfall: 0.2”
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April Dates:
The Full Moon…April 1st…The pink moon
Good Friday…April 3rd
Easter… April 5th
Earth Day…April 22nd
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The major factors:
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*** A cold start to the month of April…a concern for opening day…maybe…let’s think the first 7 days…then it is off to the races with Spring temperature rise the rest of the month as the warmer flow takes control
*** Temperatures will average out to above average to possibly well above average.
*** I don’t see any records…the pollen season will continue to roar in the month of April…thinking the season will be extra long this Spring…the first season is the tree pollen season….then grass season in the Summer and ragweed in the Fall.
*** Rainfall will be near average…let’s remember April is typically a wet month of the region.
*** What about thunderstorms...interesting…it is April…we will have storms…and this April thinking we will have our fair share of action…a push back on La Nina going away and the set up going neutral. This should be a rock and roll month…remember my chaotic thinking.
*** The number of outbreaks will be above average…4 to 6 severe weather events.
*** Flooding concerns should remain in check…widespread flooding is not a problem on the big rivers.
*** However…we always have to be aware of flash flooding with strong to severe weather events…and that will be a concern.
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Things to look for in April:
***the tent caterpillars start to appear
***Hummingbirds start to come back to the area...they are called hummingbirds...because they can’t remember the words:)
***robins and other birds start to build their nests
MAY 2026:
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May Facts:
May 1st…sunrise: 6:04…sunset: 7:53
May 31st...sunrise: 5:39…sunset: 8:19
Average high and low: 77.1/57.9…Records: 98(1953)/31(1976)
Average rainfall: 4.82”
Average snowfall: 0.0”
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May Dates:
The Full Moon…May 1st…The flower moon/May 31st…The blue moon
Mothers Day… May 10th
Memorial Day…May 25th
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The major factors:
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*** This is the month that is just about 100 percent Spring but it is also the month where we see shots of early Summer trying to muscle in.
*** I’m thinking the month will average out with near normal temps…even a touch below…but that of course means a gradual increase in temps…day and night…with the shot of very warm temperatures over the last 7 days of the month of May.
*** That brings us to the Blackberry Winter around the 9,10,11 and 12th of May… I rarely turn my back on this feature in the atmosphere. It is a chilly run of weather...May cold…I think this will be a chilly snap but not a cold snap. This is the time of year the blackberry bushes start to bloom.
*** I do not see any records...highs or lows
*** Rainfall...going out on a limb here…thinking the month is dry and signs it could be well below average with rainfall…great for large scale flood concerns, not so great going into the hot, dry weather of Summer.
*** It is the month of May…there will be severe weather…there always is in May but this May is looking like a downward trend in thunderstorm action.
*** Thinking 2 to 3 events and that would be below average…going along with the idea that rainfall will be below to well below average. However, in severe weather events there will be locally heavy rain…we all know that drill.
*** Flooding on the major rivers should remain in check. But like any Spring month when we get the thunderstorms rumbling in severe weather events we have to be concerned about flash flooding…small streams and creeks….up and down very quickly.
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Things to look for in May:
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***watch for lightning bugs or fireflies on warm evenings
***the chigger season begins and runs thru September
***coyote pups begin emerging from their dens
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Enjoy the Spring season...the trees and flowers blooming, tolerate the pollen, the rumbles of thunder and the increase in temperatures day and night, the added length of day...and of course the baseball season kicks into high gear. My Summer forecast will be out in mid to late May. Embrace and respect the atmosphere.
Time now for any questions or comments...would love to hear from you.