Some questions and (possible) answers heading into Deadline Day
Late Wednesday night, the Red Sox jumped into the trade deadline festivities with a trade: They are getting veteran lefty reliever Steven Matz from the Cardinals in exchange for minor leaguer Blaze Jordan.
The reaction from those desperately waiting for the Red Sox to be mentioned in the late-July transaction log? Eh.
This move didn't stop the questions, and only increased the thirst for answers heading into the final few hours of this year's deal-making deadline.
So ...
WHAT SHOULD WE MAKE OF THIS MATZ DEAL?
A good question to kick things off. The answer ... Eh.
While having a veteran lefty reliever, particularly one who has held left-handed hitters to a .442 OPS this season, is of value, this isn't necessarily an obvious upgrade.
While Matz rarely walks anyone, he has been giving up a lot of hits. Despite pitching in no more than five-out increments, the southpaw has allowed at least one hit in 27 of his 32 outings, including 10 hits in his most recent four outings (4 2/3 innings).
As for the option of potentially morphing Matz into a multi-inning or depth starter guy, he hasn't pitched as many as two innings since May 20 after going more than two frames in seven of his first 10 outings this season.
The question is whether or not Matz is more reliable than fellow lefty reliever Chris Murphy. Right now, that's a tough sell.
The willingness to give up Blaze Jordan in the deal wasn't complicated. The 2020 third-round pick wasn't going to be protected on the 40-man roster and didn't have a logical avenue to impact the Red Sox' major league team (despite some promising results in both Double-A Portland and Triple-A Worcester this season).
SO, ABOUT THOSE STARTING PITCHERS ...
While there was activity Wednesday, little of it had to do with the Red Sox' primary focus, starting pitching.
Zac Gallen. Merrill Kelly. Sandy Alcantara. Shane Bieber. Dylan Cease. Adrian Houser. Charlie Morton. Those are just some of the names who figure to be there for the taking at the right price. The issue is accepting what the right price is.
Late Wednesday, a report stated that the Astros had pivoted from focusing on Cease and were zeroing in on Alcantara. While the former Cy Young Award winner represents the kind of upside that could make him a potential difference-maker, he hasn't been good this year, which would be a tough reality to ignore for a Red Sox team desperate for reliability, particularly considering the potential price tag. (He has, however, been very good the last two starts, allowing one run in a combined 12 innings.)
The most intriguing starting options for Craig Breslow may be the Arizona pitchers, both of whom the Red Sox have shown continued interest in. Kelly has been rock solid for most of the season and has a proven postseason pedigree. Gallen's road this year has been extremely rocky, with his most recent three starts doing nothing to change the trend (16 runs, 20 hits in 17 innings).
So, why would the Red Sox zero in on these guys over the likes of Alcantara? The cost for both would seemingly be far less, as both are in the final years of their current deals, while the Miami starter is under team control through 2027.
Cease. Houser. Morton. They would also be rentals, which is increasingly becoming the kind of acquisition that is realistic for the Red Sox.
Cease falls into the category of Gallen, a perceived high-end starter entering this season, but hasn't been able to shake his 2025 issues. The San Diego starter has a 5.81 ERA in his last six starts, allowing fewer than four runs just twice.
Houser, who opted out of his minor league deal with the Mets earlier this season to join the White Sox, has had only one bad outing in his 11 starts this season. Also of note is that he has gone at least six innings in all but two of the appearances.
While some will look at Morton as a less-than-riveting option, judging by the veteran's recent turnaround, such a move would certainly be an upgrade on the Red Sox's final two spots in the rotation. Since June 13, the righty has gone at least five innings in each of his eight starts, allowing three or fewer runs in all but one of them.
Bieber is a guy who the Red Sox attempted to get in the offseason, losing out to the Guardians, who inked the righty to a one-year, $10 million deal with a $16 million player option for 2026 (that includes a $4 million buyout).
Considering he hasn't pitched in a big league game this season, coming off of Tommy John surgery, Bieber has shown flashes of his old self in four minor league rehab appearances, striking out 21 in 11 1/3 innings while totaling a 1.59 ERA.
The potential issue in prying away Bieber from the Guardians is that, despite losing their closer Emmanuel Clase due to a sports betting investigation, Cleveland has creeped back into postseason consideration and resides just three games out of a wild card spot. (Also, for what it's worth, Cleveland's front office is also known to drive hard bargains in doing deals.)
UPDATE: Bieber has been dealt to the Blue Jays for Toronto's No. 5 overall prospect, pitcher Khal Stephen.
THE JARREN DURAN QUESTION
When the trade deadline has come up over the last few weeks, the first question fans usually ask is, "Are they going to trade Jarren Duran?" The answer is: Not likely.
This is what we know: According to one team, the Red Sox at least introduced Jarren Duran in potential trade conversations in the early stages of July. Since then, however, their tone has changed. According to multiple sources, the Red Sox recently had little interest in including Duran in any back-and-forths.
The pivot makes sense for a few reasons. First, the front office isn't blind to how Duran is perceived in the clubhouse, and how trading away a big part of the fabric of this contending team would be an enormous risk. Second, he is no longer a luxury item. With the injury to Marcelo Mayer, necessitating Ceddanne Rafaela playing second base, the ability for Duran to man centerfield - without any other logical backup options - is a must. Factor in the less-than-spectacular recent production from Masa Yoshida and the equation is an easy one, with Duran, Roman Anthony, and Wilyer Abreu making up the Sox's Rafaeal-free outfield (with Rob Refsnyder serving as the primary backup).
And, finally, there simply aren't a lot of players like Duran in baseball right now. So while the Padres can potentially keep tantalizing Breslow with the likes of top prospect Leo De Vries, there simply aren't palatable Duran-free scenarios if this team truly wants to make a run.
The Red Sox have locked into something that seemingly works well: Roman Anthony hitting leadoff and Duran batting third, with Alex Bregman living life between them. Want proof? Anthony's production in the No. 1 spot has been impossible to ignore (1.117 OPS), with the same being able to be said for Duran in the No. 3 hole (1.415 OPS).
For a team that has desperately tried to prove they have an offense that is going to produce when the season's rubber meets the road, it's a dynamic they can't turn their backs on.
