6 rings: 3 matchups to watch in patriots vs. bills this weekend
The Patriots actually looked pseudo-competitive last weekend in their 20-17 road loss to the Raiders. They lost by just three points (which is unfortunately now a relative positive in Foxborough), scored two touchdowns, and actually had a chance to win it in the end - until they didn't.
This weekend they'll face off against the 4-2 Buffalo Bills, a team that has owned the AFC East since Tom Brady left New England for Tampa Bay. In this week’s edition of WEEI.com’s and the 6 Rings and Football Things podcast’s crucial clashes, here are three key matchups to keep your eyes on in the 1 p.m. contest:
- Bills’ pass rush vs. Patriots right tackle spot
In case you haven’t heard, the Patriots' offensive line is struggling mightily to start the 2023 season. They currently rank 30th in pass block win rate and Mac Jones is one of the most pressured quarterbacks in football. Specifically, right tackle Vederian Lowe has allowed 27 pressures this season, the second most of any tackle behind only Giants' Evan Neal.
New England started Lowe at right tackle last week against the Raiders for the fifth consecutive game, and he was essentially a turnstile lowlighted by a Maxx Crosby sack in the endzone for a safety that put the game away. Though not entirely his fault, as Mike Gesicki gave a poor effort on a chip, Lowe v. Crosby is not the 1 v. 1 matchup you want, and something has to change along their front.
‘No one is coming, except for Conor McDermott’ is what the Patriots’ locker room sweatshirts should have actually had printed on the back a few weeks ago as, on Tuesday, the team signed the tackle back to their practice squad. McDermott started six games for New England at right tackle in 2022 and was re-signed this offseason before being released with an injury settlement in September after a brief stint on the injured reserve.
“Thank God we have him,” said Belichick of McDermott at one point last season, and that statement certainly holds true again now. The Bills’ front seven, led by Leonard Floyd (6.5), AJ Epenesa (4), and Ed Oliver (4) has the most sacks of any defense in 2023 with 24 and will be looking to get all they can out of this struggling Patriots offensive line. Belichick called Oliver on Wednesday “as good as anybody we’ll play.”
Oh, and Buffalo also has Von Miller back after he started the season on the PUP list.
All of this being said, it wouldn’t shock me at all to see the Patriots elevate, and start, McDermott at right tackle this weekend. It starts and ends up front for Mac Jones and New England’s offense, and this Buffalo pass rush should be the number one focus on that side of the ball on Sunday.
- Josh Allen vs. Bill Belichick
After starting his career 0-3 versus the Patriots (mind you, in the Tom Brady era), Bills quarterback Josh Allen is 5-1 in his last six games against the division foe - and it hasn’t been all that competitive.
Since 2020, Allen has a 99.2 passer rating versus New England’s defense and has thrown 13 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions. They’ve surprisingly kept him at bay on the ground, allowing him to not get in the endzone with his legs since 2019, but his passing has been a real threat.
In un-Belichick like fashion, the Patriots' head coach didn't do much lauding over opposing players on Wednesday, instead keeping his synopsis about the Bills and their quarterback short and sweet:
“Offense is a lot of the same guys. [James] Cook’s kind of emerged for them, but obviously Gabe [Davis], Stefon [Diggs], [Josh] Allen, those guys are all tough.”
On the inside, he knows the challenge that’s ahead for his defense that's forced just 3 turnovers (2 INT, 1 FR) this season and, with the absence of Christian Gonzalez and Matthew Judon, isn't anywhere close to the vaunted unit they were in 2022. They now await arguably their toughest test yet.
- Bills WR Stefon Diggs vs. Patriots CB J.C. Jackson
It's not only Josh Allen that's beaten up on the Patriots of late, but his No. 1 weapon is Stefon Diggs as well. Here’s a look at the wide receiver's stat line versus New England in his six games since joining the Bills:
6 catches, 92 yards
9 catches, 145 yards, 3 TDs
4 catches, 51 yards
7 catches, 85 yards, TD
7 catches, 91 yards, TD
7 catches, 104 yards, TD
That’s a problem.
The player that has been tasked with defending Diggs for most of these contests is J.C. Jackson, who after a brief stint with the Chargers is now back with the Patriots and will likely draw the Diggs matchup again. While Jackson has been a solid cornerback throughout his career in Foxborough, his numbers significantly dip against Diggs, who he shadowed on at least 65% of his routes in their duels since 2020. Check out these numbers on the clash from NFL’s Next Gen Stats:
A quick disclaimer: these numbers are as of January 2022, before Jackson left for Los Angeles.
Whether New England subjects Jackson to Diggs the matchup again or tries to put somebody else on him remains to be seen, but with Jonathan Jones missing two practices so far this week with an ankle injury and Jack Jones still a massive ‘what if?’ due to his hamstring injury, their options are slim.
Jackson will have to step up on Sunday to give the Patriots a chance. My eyes are all over this one.
Make sure to follow Mike on Twitter @mikekadlick, and follow @WEEI for the latest up-to-date Patriots and Boston sports news!
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