If you pounded the over in NFL regular-season divisional games in 2007, 2016 and/or 2020, you made a little money.
If you pounded the over in regular-season divisional games in any other year over the last two decades, you got crushed.
Through the first three weeks of the 2023 season, the over in games between division foes is on pace for a dreadful return on investment … again. With an ROI of -16.7% on 16 divisional games through Week 3, the over has an ROI of -7.4% since 2003.
If you bet $100 on the over in each of the approximately 2,000 regular-season divisional games over the last 20-plus seasons, you’d be down more than $14,000. (Conversely, if you bet the under on each game, you’d be up more than $4,000, an ROI of 2.1%.)
The AFC North has contributed more than $2,000 to those losses, including nearly $800 just from games between the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns.
The over whiffed in both Ravens-Browns games last year and is 14-18-1 since 2003.
In five of those 14 wins for the over, it hit by three or fewer points, including two points in the Browns’ 24-22 win in December 2021 after a 90-yard Ravens’ drive ended with a touchdown at the 1:17 mark of the fourth quarter.
Of the 18 losses for the over since 2003, it missed by three or fewer points only three times and hit by at least seven points eight times.
As of Tuesday’s NFL odds at BetMGM, the total is 41.5 for the Ravens-Browns game in Week 4. Only the Pittsburgh Steelers-Houston Texans game has a lower total (39.5).
You can view updated Week 4 NFL odds, sportsbook promos, and more at the BetMGM online sportsbook.