This week’s event at Pebble Beach should be a fun one, but there will be a hole at the top since Dustin Johnson, the prohibitive favorite at +400, withdrew on Monday. But, his exit leaves the door wide open for the rest of the field going into the tournament, which makes it more fun for betting purposes.
Unlike years past, there is a slight format change, as the pro-am portion of this event was cancelled. What that means is we will see the three course rotation go down to two, with Monterey Peninsula not making the cut.
The change means the event will feature only two courses, Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill. Each course will be used once over the first two rounds, and then will be followed by two rounds at Pebble over the weekend. Both courses measure approximately 7,000 yards and play as some of the shortest on the TOUR.
Pebble Beach Pro AM Details:
Date: Feb 11–14, 2021
Course: Pebble Beach Golf Links and others
TV Schedule: First round tees off at 11:30 a.m. ET on Thursday.
Watch: GOLF, CBS
Purse: $7,800,000
Pebble Beach Pro AM Expert Picks, Odds, & Betting Tips
As for my picks and betting tips, nothing groundbreaking here, but aside from digging into the data, I try to look for guys that have had past success at the course, value, and players that are trending in the right direction coming into an event.
Picks to win
Daniel Berger +1400
Berger was one of the best and most consistent players after the restart last season. Statistically, Berger is up there in every category, and he has the best total strokes-gained average (1.44 per round) of anyone in this field since the restart. His short game is excellent and he’s elite when putting on poa greens (83rd percentile among this field) based on data from FantasyNational.com.
Berger has also had success at this event, as he has two top-10 finishes, including a T-5 here last year. He also made the cut at the US Open in 2019 at Pebble.
He also comes into this tournament playing well, already having racked up four top-25 finishes on the season, including a pair of top 10s to begin the year.
Experience matters here, and with DJ out, this is a huge opportunity for Berger to win this whole thing.
Jason Day +2100
While he hasn’t been playing well of late, Day is another guy who has had a ton of success at Pebble Beach. He has finished fifth or better in five of his past six AT&Ts, and has two other top six finishes.
Day has never won the event, but his consistency provides a lot of value at this price.
Longshot
This tournament is as good as any to take a flier due to the shorter courses. When picking a longshot, I try to look for guys who have 30-1 or greater odds.
Kevin Streelman (+3500)
Streelman has finished inside the top 10 the last three years here, including a runner-up finish just a year ago. He also played well last week in Phoenix (22nd place), which should mean he is rounding into form at the right time.
Another reason I love him in this spot is the removal of Monterey for this year’s event. He has lost strokes on that track in three of his last five trips, so he should, at least on paper, perform better this weekend.
At these odds, he is definitely worth a sprinkle due to his past success.
Props
Kevin Streelman Top-20 Finish (+163)
As you can see, I’m all about the Streelman train, so I’ll also be playing some Streelman matchups as well this week. When it comes to this bet, I’m going off past performance, since he’s finished inside the top-20 five straight times. The removal of Monterey as noted above and the fact that he will face a weaker field for this event is also a big boost.
At + money, this is one of my favorite bets of the event.
As always, make sure you shop around for the best lines. Good luck and let’s make some money.
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook