Sports bettors can rejoice, the NCAA Tournament is back. The three-week betting holiday is sure to be a classic.
There is a ton of intrigue in the South region, where No. 1 seed Baylor has slowed down a bit after a 17-0 start to the season.
Here are each team’s odds to win the South, courtesy of BetMGM:
Team to beat: Baylor Bears +100
I mentioned that Baylor has not been the same since returning from a three-week COVID-19 pause in February, but this is still their region to lose.
The Bears have a three-headed monster in the backcourt with Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell and MaCio Teague. All three guys are capable of taking over games on offense and slowing down the opposing team’s best player.
The concern for Scott Drew’s team comes on the defensive end, mainly on the glass. Baylor is 280th in defensive rebounding rate, which is negating it’s top-three turnover rate.
Baylor has allowed teams to break the 70-point barrier five times in seven games since returning from their pause, up from three times in a 17 game span prior.
The sky is not falling for the Bears, who have a manageable path to the Elite 8. Their offense is still dynamite and should push them deep into the tournament, but keep an eye out on their leaky defense as the next few weeks play out.
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Sleeper: Arkansas Razorbacks +1000
If you look at the odds above, there are four teams grouped together with the same odds to win the South, which one doesn’t belong?
The Razorbacks are the No. 3 seed and won nine in a row before an SEC Tournament loss to LSU.
Arkansas plays really fast -- 17th in adjusted tempo -- and disciplined basketball under Eric Musselman. The Razorbacks hunt for the best shot with a healthy ratio of looks from the perimeter and inside. The team is 221st in three-point rate, making 33.9% of them, while also 51.9% on two’s, inside the top 90 in the country.
Musselman has his team playing confident ball at the right time and has a stud freshman in Moses Moody who can raise this team’s ceiling even further.
The future lottery pick is averaging 17 points and just under six rebounds per game and gets to the line more than five times per game, shooting 81%.
The path for Arkansas is manageable as well, which I’ll get to below.
I expect to see Musselman’s team in the Elite 8, and frankly, beyond. This team can match up with the speed of Baylor and make them pay on the glass. Arkansas is great at protecting the ball and can hold the Bears down from deep in a potential matchup. The Razorbacks are just outside the top 100 in opponent three-point percentage.
Team to fade: Ohio State Buckeyes +600
A mid-season tear is nothing but a memory now that the Ohio State's defense has regressed heavily towards the mean.
While OSU went to the Big Ten title game, it wasn’t a pretty path. The team blew three consecutive second half double-digit leads on their way there, mainly because of their defense.
If you take a step back from KenPom and look at the raw defensive efficiency numbers, the Buckeyes defense checks in at 237th in the country, per TeamRankings.com, which is unweighted for strength of schedule. That number is way off from KenPom’s adjusted number of 79th.
A very concerning metric is that Ohio State is generating turnovers at the 336th highest rate in the country. The team can’t put together stops to close out games, as evident in the Big Ten Tournament.
This is a deserving two seed, but a vulnerable one at that. Oral Roberts can stay within striking distance against OSU in the first round with their high powered offense. Each team will likely break 80 points in that game with the way both teams shoot it from beyond the arc.
Later on, a potential date with either Arkansas or Texas Tech can spell trouble for Chris Holtmann’s squad. Both of those defenses should be able to contain the Ohio State offense and make their poor defense pay.
First round upset: Winthrop (+6.5) vs. Villanova
This is becoming a trendy upset pick, but it’s simply a nightmare matchup for Villanova.
After senior guard Colin Gillespie tore his MCL on March 3rd, the Wildcats Final 4 chances plummeted. The team has lost both games without him and are now tasked with a havoc-driven Winthrop defense.
The Eagles decimated pretty much everyone in their way all season, compiling a 23-1 record. In the Big South Tournament, Winthrop won their three games by an average margin of over 25 points.
They play at a frenetic pace, 11th fastest in the country, and rebound the ball incredibly well, placing inside the top 15 in both offensive and defensive rebounding.
While Jay Wright will have plenty of time to scheme a strong gameplan, this is a tall order for Villanova, who was running a short rotation even before Gillespie got hurt.
Nova is 322nd in bench minutes this season, per KenPom, and a lot is going to fall on the injured Justin Moore. He played in the Big East quarterfinals despite a sprained ankle.
Lastly, this is a slow Villanova team. The Wildcats are 320nd in adjusted tempo and are going to be in trouble if they are playing at Winthrop’s pace without their floor general to keep things in order.
This is a step up in competition in Winthrop, who has played only three teams inside the KenPom top 200, but this is not the same Nova team.
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Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary.
