March Madness is finally here! The NCAA Tournament provides us with some great matchups to bet on, including with the First Four games tipping-off today.
Prior to making your wagers, it's worth reading up on which sides are drawing sharp and public action from an oddsmaker’s point of view.
To learn more about the betting markets for the Round of 64, we talked to Johnny Avello, Sportsbook Sirector for DraftKings, and Jason Scott, Vice President of Trading for BetMGM, for their insights.
Big bets and line moves
“When you initially put the lines up and get some movement, a lot of that is some sharp money,” Avello said. “I expect most of the big money will come in starting Thursday and then the days of the games.”
BetMGM has taken a couple of big bets, most notably on Tennessee.
“We’ve had our two biggest bets on the Volunteers,” Scott said. “$110,000 on them -8 to win $100k, and $220,000 at -7.5 to win $200k.
As for line movement, there’s been plenty of it in both books.
At DraftKings, all of the following moves were caused by early sharp money:
Baylor went from -24.5 up to -26 against Hartford
Wisconsin opened early at +2.5 against North Carolina, but is now down to +1.5
Ohio State-Oral Roberts, opened at OSU -17.5, now it is down to -16.5
Oklahoma State opened at -9.5 against Liberty, now it is down to -7.5
Creighton opened at -8.5 and is now down to -7 now against UC Santa Barbara
Iowa dropped from -16 to -14.5 vs. Grand Canyon
Drake with the huge swing from +2 to laying at -1
Rutgers also had a big move from +1.5 to -1.5 against Clemson
Georgetown-Colorado has bounced around, but the late money is backing the Buffaloes as the line is now up to -6 from -5
The totals at DK have been holding relatively steady other than in two games.
“We opened Kansas-Eastern Washington at 141 and now it is to 146,” Avello stated. “That’s a big, five-point move towards the over, so we are expecting a lot of points in that one.
“The other total jump that was interesting came in on Colgate-Arkansas. We went from 157.5 up to 161.5, we’re expecting a shootout.”
As for BetMGM, there have been several key moves on both sides and totals.
Here is the complete list:
Move for the favorite
Mount St. Mary’s +2 to -1 vs. Texas southern
San Diego State -2 to -3 vs. Syracuse
West Virginia -12 to -13 vs. Morehead State
Illinois -22 to -22.5 vs. Drexel
Move for the underdog
Ohio +9.5 to +7.5 vs. Virginia
Liberty +9.5 to +7.5 vs. Oklahoma State
Colgate +9.5 to +8.5 vs. Arkansas
Drake +2 to pick’em vs. Wichita State
Move for the over
Villanova-Winthrop total 138.5 to 142.5
Arkansas-Colgate total 157.5 to 161.5
Kansas-Eastern Washington total 142.5 to 145.5
Alabama-Iona total 145.5 to 146.5
Move for the under
Oklahoma State-Liberty total 146.5 to 140.5
Florida-Virginia Tech total 137.5 to 135.5
Creighton-UCSB total 140.5 to 138.5
UCLA-Michigan State total 136.5 to 135.5
Tournament Futures
Both oddsmakers pointed towards Gonzaga and Illinois as liabilities for their books.
“‘Zaga has been bet all season long from 8-1 to now 2-1,” Avello explained. “When a team is 26-0, the public is going to bet on them all year and heading into the tournament, so they are a hazard.”
“We’ve only been writing Gonzaga and Illinois futures at our book,” Scott stated. “45 percent of our bets are on both teams, with more on Illinois, which would be our absolute worst result.”
BetMGM has also taken lot of money on Alabama to make the Sweet Sixteen and Elite 8.
“It’s a funny year, with not much money coming in on Cinderellas,” Scott explained. “Once the Michigan injury hit, we have not seen any money on them and there is little to no money on Ohio State after their Big Ten success.”
COVID related line movement
Both oddsmakers showed concern about the COVID issues we are seeing popping up.
“With the Eastern Washington game, we don't even know who's playing for Kansas as they are bringing guys in late that haven't seen a lot of action.” Scott said. “If a big upset is going to happen, that game might be it.”
He also pointed out that the drop in the Ohio-Virginia game in their book is more COVID related than sharp money.
DraftKings said it was a little bit of both factors.
“For us, we definitely dropped the number in the Ohio-Virginia game initially because we didn’t know who would participate from Virginia because of COVID,” Avello said. “That is not a lot of time to practice, so we dropped the line, but there was also sharp money early on Ohio.
Avello does think there will be some buyback on Virginia before tip-off.
Prop Bet
Before wrapping up, Scott pointed out that the prop market was heating up, especially one bet in particular.
“A ton of people are betting on the sum of the seeds who make the Final Four OVER or UNDER 11.5 bet,” he said. “We have 75% of action on the UNDER, so people are expecting the favorites to go deep."
Let the Madness begin!
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Vikas Chokshi covers the gambling industry for BetQL and his written work can be found on the sports betting vertical of Radio.com. He has an extensive network of oddsmakers and appears frequently on podcasts, radio and television shows. His previous work can be found at The Action Network, VSiN, Gaming Today, Front Office Sports, and The Big Lead.
You can find him at @docksquad33 on Twitter.
