Comebacks like the Mets’ ninth-inning rally on Thursday night don’t happen often. So infrequently that the Phillies had a 99.9 percent probability to win the game, according to Statcast’s win probability chart.
The chart itself is objectively hysterical to behold, as Philadelphia reached a 98 percent win probability when Nick Castellanos homered in the bottom of the fourth, helping the Phillies build a 7-1 lead. When Starling Marte led off the ninth with an infield single, the Phillies still held a win probability of over 99 percent.
Then, the graph begins to spike upward towards the Mets. So steep that it is almost a vertical line. It moves to 97 percent in favor of the Phillies after Pete Alonso’s double, then to 92 after Mark Canha’s single, down to 89 after J.D. Davis’ pinch-hit double, then all the way to 57 percent after Brandon Nimmo’s single. When Marte came up again and doubled in the go-ahead run, the Mets had gone from a 0.1 to 83 percent win probability in the span of half an inning.
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