The Tampa Rays finished the regular season 40-20 and despite facing in all but six games that finished in the top half of team OPS, the Rays staff compiled a 3.56 ERA, third best in all of baseball. To get a better idea of what the Astros face in the American League Championship Series, SportsRadio 610 spoke to an American League East coach, and he believes the defending American League champions have their work cut for them if they want to return to the World Series.
"They have the best pitching we saw all season," he said.
Aside from the outstanding ERA, the Rays finished fourth in strikeouts, sixth in walks, and sixth in baserunners allowed. The Rays also finished 2019 with the league's third best ERA, but this staff might be better, and a big reason why is Tyler Glasnow.
"Glasnow was the best starter we saw all year when his curveball was on, and we even saw Cole. He by far, in talking to all the hitters has the nastiest stuff out of anybody."
The 27-year old's first line stats don't jump out. His 4.08 ERA is barely better than league average, but if you look further, you'll see why this coach is so high on the tall righty. Armed with a fastball that averaged 97 MPH and a curveball that induced a swing and miss more than half the time, he struck out 38 percent of the hitters third best among starters in baseball.
"If his curveball is not working that's the only chance hitters have, but if his curveball is working it's so hard to pick up, all the hitters had a really tough time picking it up."
The Astros beat Glasnow twice in last year's American League Division Series, which included a four-run, first inning ambush in game five, but this coach says he's a different pitcher in 2020.
"It's night and day. Everybody says he's an ace, a number one front-line guy."
Glasnow started game five of the Rays series against the Yankees, so there's no telling when the Astros might see him, but the strength in Tampa's staff comes with the depth.
"Most teams have one guy, like a Glasnow type, but they have three guys that are legit."
Blake Snell is lined up to start game one for the Rays, and Charlie Morton looms as well, but behind those three starters comes a parade of relievers. Their 3.37 bullpen ERA was third best in baseball, and it's led by Diego Castillo. He was one of 12 pitchers to record a save for them this season, and he recorded the last six outs, four coming via the strikeout, of Friday's game five win.
"He throws 98, he has a changeup and a curveball, and maybe shows a slider sometimes. He has a four-pitch mix he can throw anytime. He's another guy who pitches with energy and likes having the ball (at the end of games). He has tons of confidence. He has some swag about him."
As good as the Rays bullpen has been in 2020, this coach believes that it can also be the team's downfall as well.
"They've been really lucky lately just how things lined up and how they're able to go to everybody and everybody out of the bullpen being sharp. There's a handful of times where they'll take the ball out of the starter's hands, a guy who is pitching well and can give you more and they hand off to someone else and they do their job. Sometimes that stuff doesn't go that way."
Only eight times did a Rays starter complete six innings this season, and in 20 combined starts, Snell and Morton weren't allowed to do it once. Kevin Cash trusts his relievers to backup his starters, but if you're relying on four relievers each game it only takes one to mess up your plan.
"I think there's some luck involved with some of the decision making with the guys out of the bullpen and it's worked out for them, but there were sometimes during the year where it did not work out for them.
"If you're relying on five guys out of the pen to do something to help you win, what are the odds of that happening?"
SportsRadio 610 didn't ask this coach to predict a winner of the American League Championship Series, but he pretty much spelled out who he thinks will come out on top.
"I'm not sold on their hitters, there's a lot of just average guys that are just enough, but I think their pitching is so much better than the Astros that if baseball goes as it traditionally has when pitching wins games that they'll be alright."
