The Astros 2023 season came to a disappointing finish after Monday's 11-4 loss to the Rangers. The team made history by advancing to the ALCS for a seventh straight season, but they have questions to answer if they want to make it eight.
Ryne Stanek and Phil Maton are scheduled to become free agents this winter, while Hector Neris has an $8.5 million option he's almost guaranteed to decline. The Astros would be wise to let all three walk and allocate their resources in other areas.
Neris just completed the best season of his career and is likely to get a nice raise on the open market, but at 34-years old his velocity has dropped each of the past two seasons as has his strikeout rate, and his advanced stats would say he's due for some regression.
"He's a bend but don't break type of guy," a National League scout told SportsRadio 610 in September. "But eventually those guys break. Whichever team signs him will come to regret it."
Stanek and Maton would be far more affordable to bring back, but Stanek, despite possessing elite velocity, saw his ERA increase by close to three runs in 2023, while Maton's fastball velocity dropped from 91 MPH in 2022 to 89 MPH this season, though he was one of baseball's best at limiting hard contact.
The Astros still have Ryan Pressly, Kendall Graveman, and Rafael Montero under contract for 2024 at a combined $33.5 million, while Bryan Abreu will be arbitration eligible for the first time, and the Astros have options to fill the other four-plus spots within the organization, or they could look outside the organization for a distressed asset. Few teams have been better at identifying and fixing pitchers than the Astros.
Reliever contracts tend to age poorly, as they Astros have found out with Rafael Montero, so getting younger and more versatile in the bullpen should be a priority for 2024.
Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez have two more years left of club control, while Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are set to hit free agency after next season. It's a position the Astros are quite used to, having lost an All-Star in each of the last five offseasons, but it might be time to change that philosophy.
Under Jim Crane and the previous two general managers, the Astros have been content with letting stars play through their arbitration years and then collecting the compensation pick after they sign elsewhere, but one of baseball's worst farm system is even thinner after top prospects Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford were sent to the Mets in the Verlander trade, so there are no natural successors to any of the four, and if the Astros don't want to fall back to the depths they were in before this run started they should pay their guys or look at the trade market.
Altuve could be the best player in franchise history, so it'd be shocking if the team fails to extend him, but the other three are more complicated. Valdez is set to hit the market at 32, which is a little old, but teams will always overpay for pitching, especially for a healthy lefty who doesn't rely on velocity and can throw 200 quality innings each season, while Bregman will be 30 when he hits next winter, and Tucker will be just 29 when he reaches free agency.
Extensions for all is the easy (and expensive) play, but that's not how the Astros are run, and if they aren't willing to hand them out this winter, they need to at least explore the trade market.
The Astros lost Dallas Keuchel, Gerrit Cole, George Springer, Carlos Correa, and Justin Verlander in successive offseasons and only have Alex Santos, Chayce McDermott, who was traded for Trey Mancini, and Andrew Taylor to show for it. That is what you call poor asset management.
The Athletic reported late Monday night Dusty Baker has told people inside and outside the Astros organization he plans to retire, so it would appear the team will be in the market for a new manager.
After six seasons as the team's bench coach, both under Baker and A.J. Hinch, the Astros could simply elevate Joe Espada to keep a semblance of continuity. He has earned the opportunity to run his own team and he has the respect of the clubhouse, but the Astros are not a team that has promoted from within.
All three managers Crane has hired (Baker, Hinch, and Bo Porter) came from outside the organization, and he also went outside the organization when he replaced Jeff Luhnow with James Click and did so again when he hired Dana Brown away from the Braves after parting ways with Click.
Brown has worked in baseball for more than 20 years with four other organizations, so if empowered, he might want to bring in someone with whom he already has a relationship with.
