The Astros have hit the All Star Break with a 55-36 record, good for the top spot in the American League West. They've maneuvered around injuries, illnesses and hostile crowds to post the second best record in the American League through 91 games. Let's take a look at whose stock is up and whose stock is down thus far:
Stock up
Carlos Correa
No one had more to gain with a monster 2021 than Correa, who is a free agent after the season and turned down offers of six years, $120 million and five years, $125 million from the Astros during spring training, and the Astros shortstop has delivered. Selected to his second All Star Game, Correa is having his best season since his first All Star campaign in 2017.
A mini slump to start July brought his OPS below .900. He's hit 16 home runs and driven home 52 runs while increasing his walk-rate to a career-high 13.1 percent and dropping his strikeout-rate to a career-low 17.6 percent. His play at shortstop has been stellar, per usual, but most importantly for Correa, he's been able to stay on the field. The illness he suffered through over the weekend marked the first time he had missed back-to-back games since the 2019 season.
If he can duplicate his first half of the season and couple it with a strong postseason run there's no reason to think Correa can get triple what the Astros offered him before the season this winter.
Starting pitchers
Despite not having a single starting pitcher selected the American League All Star team, the staff enters the break with a 3.35 ERA, the fifth best in baseball and only the Oakland A's starters have thrown more innings. What stands out most about the Astros starting pitchers is that they have too many good ones, to the point where they've had to stash one in the bullpen.
Seven guys (Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr, Jose Urquidy, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Jake Odorizzi, and Cristian Javier) have combined to make 90-of-91 starts this season, and all seven sport an ERA+ of at least 121, meaning they have been 21 percent better than the average pitcher. The depth of the rotation has been necessary because it hasn't been easy keeping them all healthy. Only Greinke, Garcia, and Javier have been able to stay off the injured list.
The success of the rotation bodes well not just for the remainder of the 2021 season, but the future as well. Of the seven, only Greinke isn't under team control after the season, and the Astros should be able to bring the remaining six back in 2022 for less than $30 million.
26-year old outfielders
Chas McCormick had never played in the Majors before this season while Myles Straw had never played everyday. Both have exceeded expectations through 91 games. McCormick, whose two-run double spurred the Astros ninth inning rally against the Yankees on Sunday, is carrying an .829 OPS into the break, and he's been able to maintain his level of play despite only playing in 56 games, which is not easy to do when you're a part-time player, facing big-league pitching for the first time.
After winning the centerfield job during spring training, Straw's regular season started off dreadfully. Following an 0-for-4 with two strikeouts game at Coors Field on April 20, Straw was batting .200 with a .262 on base percentage, and a .462 OPS, but in the 70 games since that night in Denver, Straw's numbers have jumped. He's batting .282 with a .367 OBP and .730 OPS, and he's played solid in center. He'll never be a star, but this version of the Astros don't need him to be. As long as he can continue to replicate the last 70 games the Astros will be fine in that spot.
Stock down
Alex Bregman's legs
Bregman is currently on the injured left after suffering a left quad strain against the Texas Rangers on June 16. A Hamstring strain forced him to miss 17-of-60 games last season, and another hamstring issue held him out for the start of spring training this season. It would appear, at the moment, the 27-year old Bregman has the legs of a 37-year old.
In 2018 the Astros third baseman had sprint speed of 4.3 seconds to first base, well above average and fourth fastest on the team, but that number has cratered to 4.61 seconds this season. Only Martin Maldonado and Michael Brantley have been slower among Astros regulars. He's either afraid to turn to turn on the jets or he can't anymore.
The good news is that Bregman has a plan to make sure his legs aren't an issue anymore. "We're working on a lot of things," he said on June 28. "Not only addressing the quad, but we're working on full lower body alignment stuff. My pelvis, my hips, getting everything squared away to be in a position to never have to deal with this stuff again."
Right-handed setup guys
Ryan Pressly was always going to be the Astros closer, but Pedro Baez, Joe Smith, and Enoli Paredes were three of the guys expected to be tasked with getting him the ball. That plan has failed spectacularly.
Baez hasn't appeared in any sort of game since signing a two-year, $12.5 million contract with the Astros over the winter. He tested positive for COVID during spring training and then injured his shoulder during his build up. He appears to be getting close to being sent out on a rehab assignment, but there's no telling when he'll be able to contribute to the Astros at the big-league level.
Smith struggled mightily after opting out of the 2020 season. He allowed eight runs over a six game stretch in April while recording just 11 outs, but he appeared to be rounding into form after allowing just one run over his next 10 appearances, only to land on the injured list for more than a month due to right elbow discomfort. He's thrown two scoreless inning since returning, so he appears to be tracking closer to the guy who finished 2019 with a 1.80 ERA.
Contact tracing from Baez's positive test put Paredes behind in spring, and his regular season has been an absolute nightmare. He's found himself on the injured list twice, and when healthy he's been completely ineffective. His ERA is 6.23 and he's walked 32.1 percent of the batters he's faced, up from 12.2 percent in 2020. He doesn't appear to be in the team's plans for the remainder of the 2021 season.
The idea that 2020 stats meant anything
Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Yuli Gurriel suffered through lousy offensive seasons in 2020, so let's look at how their numbers have recovered so far in 2021:
Player 2021 OPS 2020 OPS
Altuve .860 .629
Correa .895 .709
Gurriel .850 .658
Alex Bregman's OPS is down 14 points from its .801 in 2020, but that can be traced back to a bad June. His OPS was .879 through May 25. It turns out a 60-game 2020 season was pretty worthless.
