McClain: Astros desperate for road magic to finish the Twins or return the ALDS to Houston

(SportsRadio 610) - After dividing two games with the Twins in the American League Division Series at Minute Maid Park, the Astros need to conjure some of that road magic that worked so effectively for them this season.

The Astros were 51-30 on the road compared to 39-42 at home. Their road record is even more impressive when you take into account they were 14-3 in their last 17 games that were so crucial in their attempt to win the AL West, which took until the last day of the season.

Needing to win every game at Seattle and Arizona when both teams were competing for playoff berths, the Astros won five of six, including a sweep of the Diamondbacks. That's the kind of road success the Astros need Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons when they play at Target Field.

If the Astros defeat the Twins in both games, they can look forward to more days off before they move into the ALCS – a round they've reached in each of the last six seasons before moving on to the World Series four times.

If the Astros split the two games at Minnesota, they'll return to Houston for a pivotal fifth game Friday to determine which team advances to the ALCS.

That series most likely will be against the AL West-rival Rangers, who defeated the Orioles two times in Baltimore before returning to Arlington for the first time since Sept. 24. The Rangers played their last two series of the season at the Angels and Mariners and their first two playoff series at Tampa Bay and Baltimore.

If the Astros lose both games to the Twins, it'll represent their earliest playoff exit since 2015 when they lost the ALDS to Kansas City.

It's obvious to anyone who's followed the Astros during their incredible postseason run over the last six years of why those last two series at Seattle and Arizona were so impressive – so déjà vu.

In winning five of six games to secure another division title, the Astros reminded their fans of last season's World Series champions. Great starting pitching, terrific relief performances and clutch hitting. It's like they went into a telephone booth as Clark Kent and emerged as Superman to dominate the Mariners and D-backs.

Now the Astros need more of that and less of what they got Sunday when they lost 6-2 in a game dominated by Carlos Correa's spectacular hitting against his former team and Pablo Lopez's untouchable pitching.

Correa responded to the booing every time he came to the plate by getting three hits and driving in three runs while boosting his postseason batting average to .533 (8 of 15) in four games. Lopez threw seven shutout innings, allowing six hits and one walk while striking out seven. He left with the Twins leading 6-0. Yordan Alvarez's third home run of the series provided the Astros with their only runs.

If the Astros are eliminated by the Twins, we'll probably look back and point to the disappointing starting pitching, not counting Justin Verlander, of course. He's been exceptional in his last four starts, including his victory over the Twins in Game 1 in which he didn't allow a run despite a shaky start.

Framber Valdez's inconsistency has been maddening. He hasn't been the same since his no-hitter. He's had three consecutive poor performances, including Sunday's 6-2 loss in which he was replaced after getting only one out in the fifth inning. He surrendered five earned runs on seven hits. There's no resemblance between the Valdez of this season and the Valdez of 2022 when the Astros won all four of his starts in the playoffs.

Cristian Javier, another disappointment compared to 2022, gets the start in Game 3. Like Valdez, he's struggled to dominate like last season. Maybe his performance in his last game – giving up no runs in six innings against a makeshift Arizona lineup – won't be an aberration but a sign of what's to come. And it better come Tuesday.

In his last four starts, Javier's ERA is 3.05. In last season's playoffs, he was magnificent, compiling a 2-0 record – including one relief appearance – and an ERA of 0.71. He threw 12 2/3 innings and allowed only two hits while striking out 16. And, of course, he threw the first six innings of the no-hitter at Philadelphia, which helped the Astros win their second World Series.

Going against starting pitcher Sonny Gray on Tuesday at Target Field, where the Twins swept the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series, the Astros need a lot of good things to happen because the odds are against them. Since MLB went to its current format of 2-2-1, teams that split the first two games on the road  before heading home secured the series 67 percent of the time.

That doesn't bode well for the Astros, who had their 12-game ALDS winning streak broken by Correa, Lopez and the Twins on Sunday. Now it's time to flip that switch again and either win the next two games or at least make sure the series comes back to Minute Maid Park for a decisive game and a possible Lone Star State ALCS with the Rangers to see who has bragging rights and advances to the World Series.

John McClain can be heard Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday on SportsRadio 610 and Monday, Thursday and Sunday on Texans Radio, also on SportsRadio 610. He writes five columns a week and does three Houtopia Football Podcasts for SportsRadio610.com.