(SportsRadio 610) - If you were among that legion of Astros' fans hoping to see them host Carlos Correa and the Minnesota Twins in the American League Division Series, you got what you wanted.
But you know what they say about being careful what you wish for.
Correa and an exceptional pitching performance by the AL Central-champion Twins (87-75) ignited the sweep of Toronto in their Wild Card Series. Correa contributed a team-best three hits as well as two outstanding defensive plays in 3-1 and 2-0 victories at Target Field, securing a spot in an ALDS against his former team – the defending World Series champion.
The Astros (90-72) fashioned their worst record since 2016 but still won the AL West on the last day of the season by beating Arizona while the Rangers were losing at Seattle. The Astros earned the first-round bye because of their tiebreaker advantage over Texas and watched the Rangers sweep their series against Tampa Bay and advance to Baltimore for the other ALDS.
To be in position to become the first World Series champions to repeat since the Yankees in 2000, the Astros put together a fantastic finish by winning five of six road games over the Mariners and Diamondbacks, giving them a seventh consecutive playoff appearance and their eighth in nine years.
The five-game ALDS begins Saturday and Sunday at Minute Maid Park, but that might not be a good thing if the Astros continue their atrocious play at home, where they compiled a 39-42 record this season. Want some bad news? No team with a losing record at home has reached the World Series.
Just how bad were the Astros at Minute Maid Park? They complained so much the batter's eye was extended, and more green paint was added, but they still finished 1-6 on their last homestand. Shockingly, opponents didn't complain about the batter's eye that happened to be the same as 2022 when the Astros won their second World Series.
Perhaps the Astros will be better at home now that the playoffs are beginning. They averaged 4.5 runs at home this season and hit 92 home runs. They averaged 5.7 runs on the road and belted 130 home runs. It must be the incessant booing they receive away from Minute Maid Park, where they were 6-1 in last year's playoffs.
Maybe the Astros can flip a switch and excel again at home the way they did on the road this season when they were 51-30. Dusty Baker is expected to have Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier as his starting pitchers, and that could be a good thing.
In his last three starts, Verlander has surrendered only four runs in 19 innings. He's got 16 playoff victories, second-most in MLB history, including nine with the Astros. They brought him back for moments like these.
Valdez is coming off two rough starts, but, like Verlander, he's playoff-tested. There's no reason to think he won't pitch like he's capable – as long as he doesn't let bad calls by the home-plate umpire throw him off his emotional track.
Javier has experienced a see-saw season after being magnificent in last year's playoffs. He's coming off six scoreless innings in Sunday's 8-1 victory over the D-backs. He has a 3.05 earned run average in his last four starts. After a hot start this season, he was dreadful from late June through early September. That's not the Cristian Javier fans want to see.
Baker is hoping Javier can pitch like he did in last season's playoffs. In two starting assignments and three appearances overall, he was 2-0 with an 0.71 ERA. Javier allowed two hits and one run over 12.2 innings. He accumulated 16 strikeouts.
In the second no-hitter in World Series history, he pitched the first six innings against the Phillies, striking out nine and walking two.
Here's what we know about Game 1: With Verlander starting, Mauricio Dubon will be in centerfield and Martin Maldonado behind the plate. Other than Maldy, the lineup is loaded with terrific hitting with loads of playoff experience.
The September surprise has been first baseman Jose Abreu. Even though Yordan Alvarez was the AL Player of the Month for September with eight home runs, 20 RBIs and a .293/.441/.620 slash line, Abreu hit seven home runs, drove in 28 runs and compiled a .911 OPS. And he played excellent defense.
Speaking of defense, Correa was remarkable against the Blue Jays. He threw Bo Bichette out at the plate and tagged Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at second base on a successful pickoff play. As Astros' fans know, the bigger the game, the bigger Correa plays.
This season, he was limited to 135 games because of injuries and slashed only .230/.312/.399 with a .711 OPS. He hit 18 home runs and drove in 65 runs. With the Astros, Correa smashed 18 homers in the playoffs and drove in 60 runs.
Can Team Correa defeat the Astros? Against the Blue Jays, the Twins broke an 18-game playoff losing streak and won their first series since 2002. They won the series this season against the Astros 4-2 and believe they're a team of destiny.
Minnesota has splendid starting pitching and a shutdown bullpen. But the Astros have a well-rested, playoff-proven Big 3 of Verlander, Valdez and Javier and a bullpen that's been the best in baseball again.
The Twins are capable of pulling off an upset, but it says here this series goes five games, and the Astros advance to the ALCS for a seventh consecutive season. Their opponent? The Rangers, who'll stun the Orioles to set up a grudge match featuring bitter rivals from the Lone Star State.
John McClain can be heard Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday on SportsRadio 610 and Monday, Thursday and Sunday on Texans Radio, also on SportsRadio 610. He writes five columns a week and does three Houtopia Football Podcasts for SportsRadio610.com.
