There's less than a week remaining in the 2021-22 Rockets season, and while the team is headed towards a 60-loss season there is a lot to look forward to this offseason, so I decided to take out my crystal ball to get an early look of what's in store this summer.
Stephen Silas will return next season
"99.99 percent" a source responded when I asked if Silas would be back for a third season as Rockets head coach. I thought this was obvious, but for fear of a Kevin McHale-sized surprise at 7:00 on a Wednesday morning I decided to at least check around. I didn't ask what would have to happen for the other .01 percent to kick in, but as far as I know, Silas isn't on Twitter, so he won't tweet himself out of a job.
In all seriousness, Silas and the front office remain aligned, and while Silas will always be quick to point out that John Lucas and Robbie Keck are in charge of the team's player development operation, he oversees the process, and it is important to note you can go up and down the Rockets roster and see significant improvements with almost everyone.
John Wall will be bought out
The team will explore trades, but because it has no interest in taking on future salary, a trade partner will be nearly impossible to find, and the Russell Westbrook flip with the Lakers will not be on the table. Ultimately, Wall will be allowed to pick his next team, and however much he can get on the open market for will be the amount of money he gives back in the eventual buyout.
The Rockets will explore a trade if the right All Star is put on the market
The Rockets won't be in on 31-year old Damian Lillard if he decides he wants to move on from Portland or anyone else in that age bracket, but if the likes of Donovan Mitchell, Zion Williamson or someone else who isn't old enough rent a car become available for whatever reason this summer, you better believe Rafael Stone and his crew will have a meeting about it. The Rockets have one more grace year before the bills on the Chris Paul/Russell Westbrook trade are due, so the team can't afford to be bad much longer.
Does this mean the Rockets would make Jalen Green available? No, he's going to be a Rocket for a long, long time, as will Alperen Sengun, but they are all but guaranteed to have a top six pick in June's draft, plus another mid first rounder from Brooklyn along with all the draft capital the team took back in the James Harden trade, so it's not hard to come up with a good offer that could land a distressed asset.
The Rockets will not sign anyone to a contract extension
Christian Wood, Jae'Sean Tate, and Kevin Porter Jr. are eligible for contract extensions this summer, but I'd be surprised if any of the three get one and there's multiple reasons why.
First, and follow me closely on this, the Rockets could be loaded with cap space after next season. Green, Sengun, Josh Christopher, K.J. Martin, Usman Garuba, Garrison Mathews, and Daishen Nix will only count around $25 million against the salary cap. Add another $15 million for the team's two 2022 first round picks and that's just $40 million committed to what should be a cap of around $125 million. Wood, Porter, and Tate will carry cap holds that would amount to about $33 million, but most of that comes from Wood, and that's still enough space to add more than one significant piece in free agency.
The Rockets have bird rights on Porter this summer, so they could offer him whatever they want, but I don't think the team is ready to commit to him long term just yet, especially when you factor in the future cap space and the fact he will be a restricted free agent after next season. The team will not have bird rights on Wood or Tate this summer, so it will be limited by what it can offer. Wood can be offered 175 percent of his salary for this season, which comes out to $22 million, while the team can offer Tate around $8 million, which is 105% of the league's average salary.
If the Rockets were to extend one player this summer, it would be Tate. He'll be 27 in October, and there's no guarantee he could fetch more than $8 million a year from now. The Rockets could lock someone up who they really like without sacrificing a lot of future flexibility, but like Porter, Tate is a restricted free agent after next season.
Wood will be traded
This may be contingent of next month's draft lottery, but I think the Rockets would've traded Wood had the right offer come across before the deadline. If the Rockets land a top three pick they would be in prime position to take Chet Holmgrem, Jabari Smith, or Paolo Banchero, three bigs who could easily co-exist next to Sengun while being on the same career timeline. If the lottery goes in the wrong direction and the team winds up picking a guard or wing it could elect to hang onto Wood, but it should be easier to gin up interest in the skilled 26-year old in the offseason.
