When the Rockets finish the 2022-23 season in Washington on Sunday it will mark the end of the worst three-year stretch in franchise history, but there's hope on the horizon.
The team will be one of three with a 14 percent chance to land the top pick in the draft to go with a 40 percent chance of picking in the top three, plus the Rockets will have around $60 million in cap space to help supplement a young, talented roster that has shown flashes of what it could be. It's a big summer for the organization, and here are the five biggest questions it must answer along the way.
Will Stephen Silas return?
Silas doesn't have a contract for next season, a fact he acknowledged before Tuesday's home finale against the Nuggets. He signed a three-year contract with a team option for a fourth when the Rockets hired him in October 2020, and it feels like if the Rockets had any interest in retaining him, they would've picked up the option or given him a contract extension by now.
Silas is 58-177 in three seasons with the Rockets, and while he has support within the locker room, Silas said Tuesday he has yet to talk with owner Tilman Fertitta or general manager Rafael Stone about his future within the organization. If the Rockets elect to part ways with Silas he would become just the third coach in franchise to not make it past his third season, and the first since Tom Nissalke almost 45 years ago.
Will Rafael Stone return?
Stone's future with the Rockets has been a source of speculation for months around the NBA, well before reports of a Gersson Rosas, Nick Nurse duo taking over the Rockets emerged last week. People around the league had also floated the possibility of Stone moving back to the business side of the building with former Jazz general manager Dennis Lindsey returning to the organization to run basketball operations, but that talk has died down in recent weeks, and it appears Stone will return next season.
There's no reason Stone shouldn't return next season. His goal the last two years has been to acquire as much talent as possible, and he's done a pretty good job of achieving that goal. You can criticize him for not getting more in the James Harden trade, but his options were limited, and he didn't make the mistake of taking back Ben Simmons. His two headline draft picks, Jalen Green, and Jabari Smith Jr, appear to be on the right track, his two mid first round picks, Alperen Sengun and Tari Eason have exceeded all expectations thus far. He's also found gems in second round pick K.J. Martin and undrafted free agent Jae'Sean Tate, while cleaning up the Rockets cap sheet.
Accumulating talent is the easy part of a rebuild. The hard part is turning that talent into a winning basketball team. Stone will get another year to show he can do that, but the clock is officially ticking.
Could a James Harden reunion actually happen?
The short answer is absolutely it could. The Rockets want to bring him back and all reports indicate Harden is definitely interested in a return. The appeal to the Rockets is obvious. He would walk into training camp as their best player, and an offense that has been the league's worst since he left 27 months ago immediately vaults into, at worst, the top half.
At 33-years old Harden isn't the same player he was when the Rockets traded him to Brooklyn. He isn't as durable, he isn't as explosive, and he can't carry a team to 50-plus wins the way he once did, but that's not what the Rockets need. After three miserable seasons, the Rockets aren't winning a championship in 2024, they are simply looking to be in contention for a playoff spot. Harden does that, and he makes life easier on all the kids that currently make up the roster.
What happens if Harden turns them down?
If Harden elects to remain in Philadelphia or signs someplace else, the Rockets will have a decision to make. They are expected to have around $60 million in cap space, which Stone believes could be more than any other team in the league. They could go on a spending spree, or they could choose to roll that cap space over into next summer.
According to Hoops Hype, the next best available free agents after Harden are Kyrie Irving, Fred Van Vleet, Khris Middleton, Jerami Grant, and Kristaps Porzingis. If you go further down the list you see the likes of Draymond Green, Kyle Kuzma, Dillon Brooks and Nikola Vucevic. There's no rule that says you can only go fishing for the big fish, but overpaying a few role players doesn't seem like the best way to go, especially on a team will have made 9 first round picks in a three-year span. In 2024 you'll have All-Stars Jaylen Brown, Dejounte Murray, and Domantas Sabonis on the market, in their primes, at 28-years old as unrestricted free agents.
The Rockets would have less cap space to worth with next summer with an additional two first round picks on the roster, plus all the raises the players they currently have on rookie deals are scheduled to get for the 2024-25 season, but the main reason why the Rockets are unlikely to roll their cap space over is that they need to show significant improvement next season. Unless it falls in the top four, the Rockets first round pick in 2024 belongs to Oklahoma City are at best a coin toss even if they endure another 60-loss season. Let's say the Rockets run it back with mostly the same roster, plus their two 2023 first round picks, improve slightly and finish with the NBA's seventh worst record. The chances of them keeping their 2024 first round pick would be less than 35 percent. They don't want that. The Rockets want to make a leap, and the best way of doing that is to spend the cap space now.
Will the Rockets pick up K.J. Martin's option?
The Rockets have a decision to make with Martin. They can pick up the fourth-year option on his contract, worth $1.9 million, or they decline it and allow him to become a restricted free agent. It is essentially the same scenario the Rockets faced in 2014 with Chandler Parsons. They declined his fourth year option, but elected not to match an offer sheet from the Mavs. Martin will become an unrestricted free agent in 2024 if the Rockets exercise his option for next season.
Martin was the 52nd pick of the 2020 draft, but he is easily a top 10 pick if you do that draft over. Had he been selected in the first round of that draft he'd be eligible for a large extension before next season, and if the Rockets feel like he's part of their future it would be smart decline the option and have the ability to match any offer he gets on the open market.
