(SportsRadio 610) - The Texans (6-4) and Jaguars (7-3) are playing the most important game at NRG Stadium since the AFC wild card game after the 2019 season – a Texans' victory in overtime against the Buffalo Bills.
If the Texans win, they'll tie the Jaguars for first place in the AFC South and own the head-to-head tiebreaker that basically gives them a one-game advantage. If the Jaguars win, they'll have a two-game lead over the Texans and perhaps the Colts, who return from their bye week with a home game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Texans, who beat the Jaguars 37-17 in Jacksonville for their first victory under coach DeMeco Ryans, have a three-game winning streak. They're 6-2 over their last eight games, including six consecutive one-score games decided in the last 30 seconds.
After getting pulverized by the Texans, the Jaguars won five consecutive games before losing at home to the 49ers. They rebounded last week when they dominated the Titans, giving them six victories in their last seven games.
The Texans have dominated this AFC South rivalry, winning 16 of their last 19 and 10 of their last 11. During that 10-1 streak, the Jaguars' victory was by a 31-3 score last season at NRG Stadium, where Jacksonville embarrassed the Texans.
Before the season, nobody predicted this game would have playoff implications for both teams, and now it's one of the biggest games on the Thanksgiving weekend schedule.
"I knew how bad people thought we were going to be," rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud said this week. "I think Jalen Hurts said it. 'We had a purpose before people had an opinion.' I think what we're doing in the city of Houston and bringing people hope – that's way more special than anything.
"We're not doing it for the glitz and the glamor. That comes with it. You want to play great ball – that's our job. I want to play well. My teammates want to play well, but we don't really care who's talking or who's not. It's about what we think in that locker room, and when we look each other in the eye before we run out of that tunnel, we want to do it for each other and do it for the city of Houston."
The table is set for the Texans' most important game since the 2019 season, so let's check out five things to watch in Sunday's game:
C.J. Stroud had one interception in the first eight games, but it didn't hurt because Tytus Howard recovered a fumble on the play to help the Texans defeat the Saints. In the last two games, Stroud has committed six turnovers, including four interceptions, but the Texans have won both games to build the three-game winning streak.
They won each game in which Stroud has been picked off. Something interesting about his interceptions? He's thrown them in the opposing end of the field, not in the Texans' end to put Matt Burke's defense in bad field position.
"Every interception is different," offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik said this week when asked about the three interceptions against the Cardinals. "There's two we had good conversations about that had some good coaching points in there, that definitely are fixable. And it wasn't all him. There's more in there. We've got to clean up some routes. We've got to clean up some protection."
A lot of coaches try to protect rookie quarterbacks – especially if they're coming off a three-interception game -- by emphasizing the run over the pass, calling a lot of screens and having the passer throw a lot of checkdowns.
Bobby Slowik, who calls the plays, wants to run the ball. C.J. Stroud does check it down every now and then, but Slowik wants to be aggressive and throw down the field, and that strategy plays to Stroud's strengths.
In the three-game winning streak, the Texans have averaged 30 points and 486.3 yards. Stroud has averaged 387.3 yards passing. For the season, he leads the NFL with 296.2 yards a game with 17 touchdowns and five interceptions. The next time he throws for at least 350 yards, he'll be the first rookie in NFL history to reach that milestone four times. He's on a pace for 5,035 yards, 28 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The rookie record for touchdowns is 31 by Justin Herbert.
Slowik's confidence in Stroud has the Texans throwing past 10 yards on 50.1 percent of their plays, most in the league. They lead the league with 70 plays of at least 15 yards, according to TruMedia. They have 31 in their winning streak. Carolina has only 26 this season. They have a league-best 30 pass plays for 25 or more yards.
Because the Jaguars are 28th against the pass, allowing 254.4 yards a game, Stroud could continue to pile up yards. But keep in mind the Jaguars have an NFL-high 20 takeaways, including 11 interceptions. If Stroud doesn't protect the ball, Jacksonville will take advantage.
C.J. Stroud is getting excellent pass protection most of the time, which allows him to find receivers down the field. Tackles Laremy Tunsil and George Fant, guards Shaq Mason and Tytus Howard and center Michael Deiter have improved the longer they've played together. The pass block win rate ranks eighth in the NFL with 61 percent, according to NextGenStats.
Improved pass protection after so much instability early in the season because of injuries is a big reason the Texans have three receivers averaging more than 15 yards a catch: Noah Brown (20.9), Nico Collins (16.2) and Tank Dell 15.7. Tight end Dalton Schultz averages 11.6 yards and has five touchdowns, one fewer than Dell.
The Jaguars found out before other teams just how dangerous Dell can be. In the first game, he had five catches for 145 yards and a touchdown. He's coming off a victory over the Cardinals in which he caught eight passes for 149 yards and a touchdown – a leaping catch in the end zone for 40 yards. In his last three games, Dell has averaged 7.3 catches and 107.3 yards.
Trevor Lawrence, who was considered as a generational prospect when he was the first overall pick in the 2021 draft, is 1-4 against the Texans. In his only victory over the Texans (31-3) last season, he was 17-of-21 for 152 yards and one interception. He didn't throw a touchdown pass and compiled a 77.0 rating.
In the Texans' 20-point victory this season, Lawrence was 27-of-40 for 279 yards with one touchdown, an interception and an 85.3 rating.
Lawrence played part of this season with a knee that didn't keep him out of the lineup but hampered his mobility. He played his best game Sunday when the Jaguars clobbered the Titans 34-14. He completed 24-of-32 for 260 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. His rating was 119.5. He threw well on the run and also ran for two touchdowns. Calvin Ridley was his leading receiver with seven catches for 107 yards and two touchdowns. The Jaguars utilized Ridley outside, inside and in motion, and he flourished. The Texans limited him to three catches for 40 yards in the first game.
Lawrence will have to watch out for DeMeco Ryans' pass rush. He wants to get pressure with a four-man rush but will call blitzes when he thinks they'll work. According to NextGenStats, the Texans are third with a 56 percent pass rush win rate. Will Anderson Jr. is fourth among edge rushers and Jonathan Greenard is 11th. Sheldon Rankins is fourth among defensive tackles and Maliek Collins 13th.
Thanks to improved run blocking and back-to-back 100-yard games by Devin Singletary, the Texans are up to 24th in rushing with 99.5 yards a game. Dameon Pierce, who's missed the last three games with an ankle injury, is expected to return and get some carries.
How Bobby Slowik distributes the carries and what the results are will get a lot of attention and could play a key role in a win or loss. The Texans' run block win rate is 22nd (66 percent), according to NextGenStats.
The Jaguars play outstanding run defense. They're fourth in the NFL, allowing only 87 yards a game.
The Texans are playing splendid run defense, too, ranking eighth and surrendering 96.5 yards a game. In the Jaguars' victory at NRG Stadium last season, Travis Etienne ran for 108 yards, including a 68-yard run.
In the loss to the Texans this season, he had 88 yards and averaged 4.6 a carry. He's also an excellent receiver and averages 128.5 yards from scrimmage and has six touchdowns in four road games.
Once again, the Texans will play without suspended middle linebacker Denzel Perryman. Safety Jimmie Ward also is expected to miss another game. Perryman and Ward are two of their best run defenders.
John McClain can be heard Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday on SportsRadio 610 and Monday, Thursday and Sunday on Texans Radio, also on SportsRadio 610. He writes five columns a week and does three Houtopia Football Podcasts for SportsRadio610.com.
