(SportsRadio 610) - The Texans are moving up one weight class on Sunday when they tangle with the Bengals in Cincinnati.
The Bengals are a legitimate Super Bowl contender riding a four-game winning streak behind quarterback Joe Burrow, and they're trying to overtake the Ravens atop the AFC North.
Cincinnati (5-3) began the season 0-2 but has recovered nicely, including a current four-game winning streak, with the last three victories over Seattle, San Francisco and Buffalo – all playoff contenders with winning records.
Coach DeMeco Ryans has helped the Texans (4-4) recover from an 0-2 start. They're 4-2 over their last six games, including road losses to Atlanta and Carolina on field goals with no time left on the clock. Sunday's 39-37 victory over Tampa Bay was one of the most exciting games in the NFL this season, and the Texans are hoping to build on it.
After the Texans play the Bengals, they'll have eight games remaining. Only two opponents – Jacksonville and Cleveland – currently have winning records, and both games are at NRG Stadium. And the Texans already have a 20-point victory over the Jaguars in Jacksonville.
If the Texans are going to shock the NFL by upsetting the Bengals and ending their winning streak, here are five things to watch to see if they can pull it off:
The Bengals opened as 8 ½-point favorites and currently at 6 ½ points, despite the Texans missing so many key players.
On Friday, they listed cornerback Steven Nelson as questionable but ruled out safety Jimmie Ward, linebacker Henry To'oTo'o, receiver Nico Collins, running back Dameon Pierce, fullback Andrew Beck, linebacker Jake Hansen, tight end Brevin Jordan and kicker Ka'imi Fairbairn.
Fairbairn will be replaced by veteran Matt Ammendola, signed off the street this week.
With Nelson dealing with neck and back injuries, the Texans are hoping to get back cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., who was playing well before missing the last six games because of a hamstring injury.
He'll start opposite Shaquill Griffin, a nice addition signed as a free agent by general manager Nick Caserio. Tavierre Thomas is the nickel cornerback, so they should still be in good shape there.
The problem is at safety, where Ryans and defensive coordinator Matt Burke have big issues. Ward is a huge loss. Backup M.J. Stewart joined backup safety Eric Murray on injured reserve this week. Other than starter Jalen Pitre, the Texans are hurting at safety. It'll help the defensive backs, of course, if the linemen can pressure Joe Burrow. Getting back tackle Sheldon Rankins should help the pass rush.
Ryans and Burke have enough linebacker depth that they can overcome the loss of To'oTo'o with Blake Cashman and Christian Harris on the outside and Denzel Perryman in the middle.
The most important players missing for the Bengals are receiver Tee Higgins and defensive end Sam Hubbard. Receiver Ja'Marr Chase is listed as questionable.
Rookie C.J. Stroud can't possibly duplicate his magnificent performance against the Buccaneers, but he's going to have to play a near-perfect game for the Texans to pull off an upset.
Fans can't expect Stroud to throw for 470 yards and five touchdowns without an interception every week, but he'll have to carry the team again. That's a lot of pressure to put on a rookie's shoulders, especially when he doesn't have a legitimate running game, but that's a fact.
The Bengals have given up a lot of yards, which isn't reflected in their record. They're 27th in defense (364 yards a game), including 22nd against the pass (234.3).
The Texans are ninth in offense (351.1) and fourth in passing (264.1). The offensive linemen have done a good job of pass protection. They'll have to keep Cincinnati's best pass rusher, end Trey Hendrickson (eight sacks) away from Stroud.
The Bengals have three players with four sacks, but end Sam Hubbard is injured.
Cincinnati fans are complaining because wide receiver Tee Higgins is out with a hamstring injury. He has 27 catches for 328 yards (12.1 average) and two touchdowns. But what about the Texans missing Nico Collins with a calf injury?
Collins is C.J. Stroud's leading receiver with 36 catches for 631 yards (17.5 average) and four touchdowns.
Robert Woods returns from a two-game absence, but he doesn't provide big plays like Collins, who has nine receptions for at least 25 yards, third in the NFL. He has 281 yards on third down, second in the league. His average of 20.1 yards on third down is going to be missed.
The Texans are the only team in the league with three receivers – Collins, Tank Dell and tight end Dalton Schultz – with at least four touchdown catches.
Noah Brown has returned from the injured list with a bang, averaging 19.1 yards on 14 receptions. He has a catch of at least 31 yards in each of his last three games.
It's hard to believe a team is actually worse than the Texans at running the ball, but the Bengals are. Actually, there are five teams worse than the Texans if you can believe it, and the Bengals just happen to be last in the NFL in rushing with 75.9 yards a game.
Joe Mixon is their leading rusher with 126 carries for 490 yards (3.9) and three touchdowns.
The Texans have played splendid run defense a year after allowing a league-worst 170 yards a game. Under DeMeco Ryans and Matt Burke, the defense has been a monster surprise when it comes to stopping the run. The Texans are 10th, allowing 97 yards a game rushing.
If they're able to stop the league's worst running game, that number should be reduced significantly.
As for the Texans' running game, well, Dameon Pierce is out for a second game in a row, but they haven't been able to run with him or without him. They average 87 yards a game, and the Bengals are 27th against the run, surrendering 129.8 a game.
Two weeks ago against Carolina's 31st run defense, the Texans generated 110 yards on the ground, cause for celebration, but they still lost to the Panthers, the worst team in the league.
Ask any coach about the most important statistic besides scoring, and he'll tell you turnovers. The team that forces the most usually wins. The Bengals lead the NFL with a plus-9 turnover differential. The Texans are plus-5.
Cincinnati has 15 takeaways and six giveaways. The Texans have committed five turnovers – fewest in the NFL -- to go with 10 takeaways. The Texans have struggled to force turnovers. This would be the ideal time for the defense to force a couple, especially if they affect field position for the offense.
The Texans have one takeaway in the last two games. The last time they had two was in their victory over New Orleans. They haven't forced more than two turnovers in any game this season. The offense went three consecutive games without a turnover but has one in each of the last three. Joe Burrow has thrown four interceptions compared to C.J. Stroud's one.
John McClain can be heard Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday on SportsRadio 610 and Monday, Thursday and Sunday on Texans Radio, also on SportsRadio 610. He writes five columns a week and does three Houtopia Football Podcasts for SportsRadio610.com.
