(SportsRadio 610) - The Texans have never been in a situation like the one they face Saturday night at Indianapolis. If the Texans win, they'll make the playoffs in DeMeco Ryans' first season. If they lose, they'll watch the playoffs on television.
At worst, this has been an incredible first season for Ryans as a head coach. He's taken over a three-win team and helped put the Texans in an unbelievable position – a winning record and an opportunity to reach postseason for the first time since 2019.
At best, the Texans will beat the Colts, finish with a 10-7 record and win the AFC South title – a worst-to-first accomplishment.
First, the Texans have to take care of business at Lucas Oil Stadium, where they have a 4-4 record over the last eight seasons, including a one-point victory in the last game of 2022 that gave general manager Nick Caserio a chance to use the second overall pick in the draft on quarterback C.J. Stroud.
The Texans must defeat Indianapolis in their nationally televised game on ESPN/ABC and then become Titans' fans on Sunday.
If the Texans win and the Jaguars lose at Tennessee, they're division champions with a wild card playoff game against the Browns, who clobbered them 36-22 at NRG Stadium on Christmas Eve.
If the Texans and Jaguars win, Jacksonville is the AFC South champion that hosts Cleveland. The Texans would go on the road to Buffalo if the Bills defeat the Dolphins on Sunday night, or Kansas City if Miami wins.
Ryans and his team can't afford to get caught up in the playoff ramifications because they're playing a team that smashed them 31-20 on Sept. 17 and intends to sweep the division series and send the Texans home with a 9-8 record.
With the Texans heading to Indianapolis on Friday, here are five things to watch in their primetime game with Joe Buck, Troy Aikman and Lisa Salters handling the broadcast:
In the 26-3 victory over the Titans, offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik did a good job of calling plays to protect C.J. Stroud after he missed two games with a concussion. Slowik didn't have Stroud throwing down the middle against Tennessee's deep zone. He completed sideline routes, short passes over the middle and screens. Stroud utilized a lot of receivers.
The Colts love to play zone, and that means Stroud should be looking to hit Nico Collins on slant routes and let his 6-4, 220-pound receiver break tackles, which he's done exceptionally well. Stroud has done a terrific job against zone coverage, but he has to be patient and disciplined not to force throws into tight windows.
The Colts don't care about giving up yards. When the Texans reach the red zone, Indianapolis wants them to settle for field goals. The offense has experienced red zone issues all season, ranking 17th (52.9 percent). The Texans are 10th in offense (344.6 yards), including 22nd (99.2) rushing and seventh (240.4) passing. Stroud has done a great job of protecting the ball with 21 touchdown passes and five interceptions.
The Texans are plus-9 in turnover differential, and only three teams are better. The Colts are 24th in defense (352.6), including 27th against the run (127.8) and 17th against the pass (224.8). They're tied for 16th in red zone defense (54.0).
In the first game against the Colts, C.J. Stroud was sacked six times, still a season high. He was knocked down nine times, and the Colts had 10 tackles for loss.
By comparison, the Texans recorded no sacks or tackles for loss, and they had one quarterback hit. Stroud needs the kind of protection he received Sunday against the Titans. Returning from his concussion, he was sacked once, and it was his fault for holding the ball too long rather than throwing it away.
Indianapolis has a splendid front four in ends Kwity Paye and Samson Ebukam and tackles DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart. The Colts have 49 sacks. Ebukam (9.5), Paye (8.5), Dayo Odemingbo (eight) and Buckner (seven) have been ferocious pass rushers. Stewart has made a lot of big plays against the Texans. The Colts' front four can penetrate and get into the backfield in a hurry.
The Texans enter the game 22nd in rushing with 99.2 yards a game. When they've reached 100 yards, they have a 5-1 record.
When Devin Singletary has hit triple digits, they're 3-0. The Texans are 3-4 on the road. In those three victories, they've averaged 148.6 yards rushing. The Colts surrender almost 128 yards a game rushing. In their loss to Indianapolis in September, the Texans rushed for a season-low 52 yards and averaged 2 a carry.
One reason is because they fell behind early, trailed 28-10 in the third quarter and 31-10 early in the fourth quarter and had to play catchup. In that game, Dameon Pierce started and ran for 31 yards on 15 carries. Singletary came off the bench and contributed 14 yards on four carries, with a long gain of 5.
It's interesting to note the changes in the offensive line from that first game with the Colts: Left tackle Josh Jones, left guard Kenyon Green, center Jarrett Patterson, right guard Shaq Mason and right tackle George Fant. Mason, who's played in every game, is the only lineman who's starting on Saturday night.
Expect Bobby Slowik to emphasize the run. The Texans do run the ball more effectively than early in the season, including averaging 107 yards on the road, but they're nothing special. Their longest run of the season is 24 yards by Singletary in Sunday's victory over the Titans. Slowik tries just about everything to make the run game work – end-arounds, reverses, fake reverses – and try to keep the defense off balance. In a game of this magnitude, don't be surprised if C.J. Stroud runs more than usual. The goal is to keep the Colts off balance.
The Colts have a terrific one-two punch in Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss. They're hoping Moss returns after a two-game absence. He led the Colts with 18 carries for 88 yards and a touchdown in the victory at NRG Stadium. Moss is the Colts' leading rusher with 764 yards, and Taylor is second with 553.
The Texans want to contain the run, force Gardner Minshew to throw and then get pressure on him before he can locate his talented receivers led by Michael Pittman Jr. (104 catches for 1,108 yards, five touchdowns).
Taylor hasn't lost to the Texans. He's 5-0 against them and averages 124.4 yards and 5.9 a carry. In his last three games against the Texans, he's averaged 149.6 yards and 5.8 a carry. Taylor should find a different run defense than what he's been used to.
The Texans have gone from 32nd (170 yards a game) last season to tied for third (88.5) against the run this season. They've given up 3.3 yards a carry, second to New England's 3.2. In their last 12 games, they've allowed 79.2, including 63 in their last four. It doesn't seem to matter who's on the field in the defensive line because the linemen crush the run, as do the linebackers.
End Jonathan Greenard, their leading pass rusher, will miss a second consecutive game. Tackle Maliek Collins, who missed Sunday's game, is questionable.
End Derek Barnett and tackles Khalil Davis and Kurt Hinish have done an excellent job off the bench. Tackle Teair Tart played well against the Titans, his former team. The linemen will try to get off the ball quickly, penetrate, swarm and try to hit Taylor in the backfield before he can get started. The longest run the Texans have allowed is 23 yards.
It makes sense that Saturday's game could be determined by one of the kickers, Ka'imi Fairbairn or Matt Gay. The Texans have played six games decided by six or fewer points, and they're 3-3 in those games. The Colts are 3-1 in games decided by three or fewer points. The Texans have grown accustomed to playing in close games, including nine of their last 12 settled by seven or fewer points.
Even though Fairbairn, 29 and playing in his seventh season with the Texans, missed five games with a quad injury, he may be having his best season. He's been perfect on 19 extra points and is 26-of-27 on field goals for 97 points. His only miss was from 51 yards. He's connected on four of at least 50 yards, including a 54-yarder that beat the Titans with no time left in overtime. Fairbairn has made 20 field goals in a row.
Gay, 29 and playing in his fifth season, including his first with the Colts, has 125 points. He's made 30-of-37 field goals, including 14 in a row. He's 7-of-11 from 50-plus yards. Don't be surprised if Fairbairn or Gay kicks a field goal that determines whether it's the Texans or Colts who make the playoffs.
John McClain can be heard Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday on SportsRadio 610 and Monday, Thursday and Sunday on Texans Radio, also on SportsRadio 610. He writes five columns a week and does three Houtopia Football Podcasts for SportsRadio610.com.
