(SportsRadio 610) - In a surprising decision by coach DeMeco Ryans, third-team quarterback Case Keenum will start over backup Davis Mills in Sunday's game at Tennessee, according to a late Friday report from KPRC.
Ryans and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik are taking a huge chance by replacing the injured C.J. Stroud (concussion) with Keenum, who's started only two games over the last four seasons, compared to Mills' 28 starts over the last two seasons.
Keenum has 64 starts in his 11-year career, including two with Cleveland in 2021. His record is 29-35, including 3-7 over his last five seasons. Mills won at Nashville last season and had one of the best games of his career in the last game of his rookie year, throwing for 301 yards and three touchdowns without an interception in the Titans' 28-25 victory.
Keenum, who has 10 game-winning drives in his career, had his best season in 2017 with Minnesota. He was 11-3 as a starter and authored the Minnesota Miracle in the divisional round of the playoffs before being eliminated at Philadelphia. In his first two seasons as the starter, Mills was 2-11 and 3-11-1.
Because of injuries to key players like Stroud, receiver Nico Collins, right tackle George Fant, defensive end Will Anderson Jr. and linebacker Blake Cashman, the Texans have gone from favored by 3.5 points to 3.5-point underdogs against the Titans.
Here are five things to watch in Sunday's game:
Because Sunday's game is a must-win situation and Case Keenum has played in more big games than Davis Mills, the coaches favored Keenum. They're taking a chance that Keenum's experience will help him avoid turnovers – no interceptions or strip sacks. The worst thing that can happen is for the Texans to commit turnovers in their territory, shortening the field position for the Titans.
The offense is operating at about 75 percent capacity. Stroud is out until he is cleared through the concussion protocol. Keenum can't throw interceptions or get strip-sacked, especially if it's in Texans' territory, which would shorten the field for the Titans and rookie quarterback Will Levis, the second-round pick from Kentucky.
Bobby Slowik should call a game that fits what Keenum does best. Expect Slowik to make calls for short drops that allow Keenum to get rid of the ball fast. Shorter routes are required because the offensive line has experienced too many mental and physical errors that contributed to Stroud getting hit too much, including landing him on the sideline with the concussion.
With leading receiver Nico Collins nursing a calf injury that caused him to miss all but three plays in the Jets debacle, it's time for the other receivers to become productive again for Case Keenum. Getting Dalton Schultz back after a two-game absence should prod Bobby Slowik to use a lot of two tight-end alignments with Schultz and Brevin Jordan. They could be productive on the shorter routes, especially on bootlegs off play-action.
At times, Robert Woods has played a prominent role in the passing game but not lately. He's going against his former team he played with last season before signing with the Texans. Keenum needs to look for Woods on third down because the veteran is smart and experienced enough to be where he needs to be to get first downs. Noah Brown went from two spectacular performances to two games without a catch after missing two games with a knee injury. He's been limited during practice. The coaches have been hoping John Metchie III would take advantage of injuries at receiver, but so far, it hasn't happened.
It's no secret the Texans' running game has been a huge disappointment for most of the season. The zone scheme Bobby Slowik installed is not conducive to the Texans' talent. They're 25th in rushing with 96.6 yards a game. They've rushed for at least 100 yards in five of 13 games. During one stretch of reaching triple digits in four of five games, they averaged 132.2, including 188 in their victory at Cincinnati. Now they've gone three in a row averaging only 87 yards.
What makes it so exasperating for the coaches is that Denver went into its game against the Texans as the NFL's worst run defense, and the Jets were tied for 28th. The Texans couldn't generate even 90 yards in either game.
It's been clear for a while now that Devin Singletary is much more effective than Dameon Pierce in this system running behind a line that struggles to run block. Against the Jets, the run block win rate for the starting linemen, according to Pro Football Focus, was Laremy Tunsil (71.3), Shaq Mason (65.6), George Fant (65.5), Michael Dieter (53.0) and Juice Scruggs (40.4). In other words, Scruggs and Deiter got steamrolled by defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, among others.
In his last five games against the Texans, Titans running back Derrick Henry has gouged them for an average of 203.6 yards, including 7.1 a carry. In those five games, he has rushed for 211, 212, 250, 219 and 126 yards. The defense was ready to pop the champagne corks last season when he ran for 126 after four consecutive games with at least 211.
For the record, the last time Henry failed to rush for 100 yards in this AFC South series was the first game of the 2019 season when he accumulated 86. The Texans caught a break in 2021 when he missed the second half of the season, and they didn't have to play against him.
Like the Texans, injuries in their offensive line have contributed to problems the Titans have experienced in the running game. Henry has three 100-yard games, and they're 2-1 in those games. For the season, he's rushed for 875 yards and averaged 4.1 a carry. He's rushed for 10 touchdowns, including two in each of the last three games.
Fortunately for the Texans, they've been effective against the run. They were last in 2022, giving up 170.2 yards a game and 5.1 a carry. They're eighth this season, surrendering 95.6 yards and 3.6 a carry. The defense has done an excellent job of containing opponents' running games, and this could be the Texans' best game against Henry in years. If the Titans get inside the 5, the defensive players know who's getting the ball.
Rookie quarterback Will Levis, a second-round pick (33rd overall), is 3-4 as a starter after engineering the comeback victory at Miami. Since replacing injured starter Ryan Tannehill and playing well enough to keep the job, Levis has thrown for 1,593 yards, completed 58.3 percent, has eight touchdown passes and three interceptions. He averages 7.1 yards per attempt. Levis has been sacked 20 times, and his rating is 86.8.
At 6-4, 229, Levis is strong and fearless and doesn't hesitate to run if his protection breaks down. He's got a strong arm and likes to throw deep if he gets enough time. His favorite target, DeAndre Hopkins, is closing in on another 1,000-yard season.
Bill O'Brien trading Hopkins to the Cardinals is still one of the worst trades in Houston pro football history. It'll be interesting to watch Hopkins going against cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., who's been outstanding since returning from a hamstring injury.
If the pass rushers can get pressure on Levis and force him to throw early or on the run, he might struggle with his accuracy. The Jets' Zach Wilson burned the secondary for 301 yards and two touchdowns in the previous game.
The defense has played some of its worst games against quarterbacks who aren't among the league's best. This would be a good time to stop that trend even though Levis is headed on an upward trajectory.
John McClain can be heard Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday on SportsRadio 610 and Monday, Thursday and Sunday on Texans Radio, also on SportsRadio 610. He writes five columns a week and does three Houtopia Football Podcasts for SportsRadio610.com.
