(SportsRadio 610) - For the second consecutive Sunday, the Texans are playing a game that is critical to their playoff aspirations, something that was considered far-fetched before the season.
The Texans (6-5) are desperate not to lose a second home game in a row when they tangle with the Broncos (6-5). Going into this weekend's games, they're the first two teams on the outside of the AFC playoff race.
Losing 24-21 to Jacksonville in their last game cost the Texans an AFC South title, in all likelihood. That defeat gave the Jaguars a two-game lead over the Texans and Colts. If the Texans had won, they would have swept the Jaguars, moved into a tie for first place and owned the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Now the Texans don't want to slip against the Broncos in what should be another exciting game against a red-hot team. The Texans have played seven consecutive games decided in the last 30 seconds. The Broncos have a five-game winning streak. DeMeco Ryans and Sean Payton are among the leading candidates to be voted NFL Coach of the Year.
After Sunday's game, the Texans play two more teams that currently have a winning record – the Browns and Colts. The Broncos play one – the Lions.
As the clock ticks down to the 12th game of the season that's a must-win situation for both teams, here are five things to watch:
The loss to Jacksonville illustrates just about valuable C.J. Stroud is to the Texans. They couldn't run the ball or protect Stroud. They couldn't prevent Trevor Lawrence from throwing for the second-most yards of his three-year career, thanks to six explosive completions for at least 42 yards. But, thanks to Stroud, the Texans still had a chance to at least force overtime before Matt Ammendola's 58-yard field goal bounced off the crossbar with 29 seconds remaining.
Stroud put on a tremendous performance. He was under constant pressure and was forced to throw on the run more than any game this season. He connected on 26-of-36 (72.2 percent) for 304 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. He was sacked four times, and his rating was 116.0. He also was the team's leading rusher with six carries for 47 yards and a touchdown.
Even though the Broncos have won five in row to put them in the wild card race, they're 30th in defense (388.2 yards a game), including last against the run (155.2) and 23rd against the pass (233). Payton and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph want to force Stroud into committing turnovers. He had six takeaways in victories over the Bengals and Cardinals and none in the loss to the Jaguars.
Denver specializes in takeaways. The Broncos lead the league with 22, including 15 in the last four games. They're plus-8 in turnover differential. If Joseph's defense can force turnovers and shorten the field for the offense, it'll give Denver a huge advantage. If it comes down to the red zone, Denver's defense is 11th (51.2 percent) at preventing touchdowns. The Texans were three-for-three in red zone touchdowns against the Jaguars, boosting them to 20th (51.3 percent.
As Sean Payton knows, the best way to keep C.J. Stroud from burning his defense is to dominate the clock by controlling the ball with the run and a conservative passing game that utilizes low-risk short passes by Russell Wilson. The Broncos have watched tape of Stroud and have a game plan to stop or contain him, but, as other teams have found out, having a good game plan and actually executing it are two different things.
This season, Stroud has thrown for 3,266 yards and completed 63.7 percent. He has 19 touchdown passes and four interceptions. He averages 8.3 yards per attempt and has a 100.8 rating. The Texans are sixth in yards (374.9), including 24th in rushing (98.7) and second in passing (276.2).
When the Broncos look at what Stroud has done and could continue to do, they have to be impressed. He's the first rookie quarterback to throw for at least 300 yards in four consecutive games. He could become the first Texans' quarterback to have five in a row. He's currently tied with Matt Schaub (2010) and Deshaun Watson (2018, 2020).
Stroud has six 300-yard games and could eclipse Justin Herbert's rookie record of eight. He needs 331 yards against the Broncos to pass Andrew Luck (3,596) for second place for the most yards in a quarterback's first 12 games. Patrick Mahomes (3,912) has the record.
Stroud leads the NFL with 112 completions for 2,129 yards in passes thrown past 10 yards, according to NextGenStats. In November, he completed 27 passes for 20 or more yards. By comparison, no other AFC quarterback had more than 14, and that includes Herbert, Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen and Russell Wilson.
Until the Jacksonville game, Stroud benefitted from good pass protection. The Texans' pass block win rate is 10th at 61 percent.
For the first time since the first game of the season, the Texans are expected to have their top-four receivers healthy. Nico Collins (50 catches, 800 yards, 16-yard average, five touchdowns), Tank Dell (47, 709, 15.1, seven), Robert Woods (30, 326, 10.9, one) and Noah Brown (21, 439, 20.9, one) are going to give C.J. Stroud his full complement of receivers for the first time since the opening loss at Baltimore.
Unfortunately for Stroud and the offense, tight end Dalton Schultz is expected to miss the game because of a hamstring injury suffered late in the Jacksonville game. He had one catch for 4 yards on two targets. Schultz has been outstanding with 40 catches for 455 yards and five touchdowns. And he's been an exceptional blocker.
The Broncos have two of the NFL's best defensive backs in cornerback Pat Surtain II and free safety Justin Simmons. It'll be interesting to see how they defend C.J. Stroud's receivers, especially Dell, who's been on fire.
Dell's seven touchdowns are tied for first among rookies, and his 709 yards are second. He can become the NFL's first rookie with at least five catches for 50 yards and a touchdown in five consecutive games and the first rookie to do it seven times in a season. He has six, tying him with Anquan Boldin (2003).
Stroud and Dell can make history together. When they collaborate for an eighth touchdown, they'll become the first rookie duo to achieve that feat since 2003 when the Browns' Tim Couch and Kevin Johnson did it. The league record is nine by the Giants' Charlie Conerly and Bill Swiacki (1948) and the Patriots' Jim Plunkett and Randy Vataha (1971).
Russell Wilson, who turned 35 this week, has a 4-0 record against the Texans and would like to make it 5-0. Playing for Sean Payton, Wilson's career has been rejuvenated. He's completed 218-of-319 (68.3 percent) for 2,199 yards and 20 touchdowns. He's thrown four interceptions, averaged 6.8 yards per attempt and fashioned a 103.4 rating.
Wilson has been exceptional in the red zone, throwing 17 touchdown passes and no interceptions. Denver's red zone offense is 21st, scoring touchdowns at a 51.2 percent rate. The Texans' defense is 15th in the red zone (52.8 percent).
The Texans don't want a repeat of last year's game in Denver. The Texans led 9-6 in the fourth quarter, but the Broncos scored the last 10 points. Wilson threw for 219 yards with one touchdown and one interception. His rating was 66.5. Wide receiver Courtland Sutton did the most damage with seven catches for 122 yards (17.4). Sutton, who has 48 receptions for 560 yards and eight touchdowns, must be licking his chops knowing all the explosive plays the Texans have surrendered in recent games.
The Broncos have been successful running the ball in all but one game during their five-game winning streak. They're 12th in rushing (115.5), but average 127 during the winning streak. They ran for a season-high 169 yards in their victory over the Browns, who have the best defense in the league.
Denver has three players with at least 266 yards rushing. Javonte Williams leads with 538. Jaleel McLaughlin has 281 and Russell Wilson (266). Wilson isn't afraid to take off when he can't locate an open receiver.
Playing the run is what the Texans' defense does best. They're eighth (95.1), but that statistic drops (82.8) over the last seven games. The Broncos have the NFL's worst run defense (155.2).
The Texans are coming off an awful performance running the ball against the Jaguars. Perhaps the linemen will run block better so Devin Singletary and Dameon Pierce can find some holes. The Texans are 26th in run block win rate (69 percent), which shouldn't be surprising considering how inconsistent the running game has been.
John McClain can be heard Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday on SportsRadio 610 and Monday, Thursday and Sunday on Texans Radio, also on SportsRadio 610. He writes five columns a week and does three Houtopia Football Podcasts for SportsRadio610.com.
