(SportsRadio 610) - The last time the Browns came to NRG Stadium they humiliated the Texans on Christmas Eve.
The 36-22 score was not indicative of how badly the Browns obliterated the Texans on their way to an 11-6 record and the fifth seed in the playoffs, setting up a rematch with the AFC South champions. That would be the Texans, who are two-point underdogs at home on Saturday. The over/under is 44.5.
The revenge factor can't be overlooked, but that's not as important as the Texans having quarterback C.J. Stroud, defensive end Will Anderson Jr. and linebacker Blake Cashman available for Saturday afternoon's game after they missed the first game. Defensive end Jonathan Greenard, the team's leading pass rusher with 12.5 sacks, left the Cleveland game early with a sprained ankle that's kept him on the bench ever since. He was limited in practice this week and designated as questionable.
Having back Stroud, Anderson, Cashman and possibly Greenard could make a huge difference in whether the Texans upset the Browns and advance to the divisional round or finish their first season under DeMeco Ryans with a playoff loss. Either way, it's been a tremendous season for a team that was 3-13-1 in 2022.
The Texans and Browns are winding up their week of practice, so this is the ideal time to check out Five Things to Watch at NRG Stadium:
In the Browns' Christmas Eve massacre of the Texans, Joe Flacco threw a 53-yard bomb to Amari Cooper on the first play to set up the first touchdown that led to a 36-7 lead in the fourth quarter. Flacco threw three touchdown passes, completed six passes of at least 20 yards and finished with a season-high 368 yards. Cooper had 11 catches for 265 yards and two touchdowns. Tight end David Njoku, who led the Browns with 81 receptions this season, caught six passes for 44 yards and a touchdown.
When Flacco throws, the coverage needs a seismic shift from the first game against Cleveland. Derek Stingley Jr., who was voted AFC Defensive Player of the
Month this week, has been outstanding since returning from his hamstring injury. Against the Browns, though, he gave up a touchdown pass, intercepted a pass and had an opposing quarterback rating against him of 109.4. That's about double what his regular season QB rating was. Stingley, Steven Nelson and Desmond King II have to stick to receivers because the safeties have struggled in coverage for most of the season.
Joe Flacco dropped back 42 times in the first game, but the Texans didn't sack him. They knocked him down eight times, including three by end Derek Barnett and two each by tackles Maliek Collins and Myjay Sanders. Even with Will Anderson Jr. not close to full strength because of an ankle injury, having him play Saturday puts a lot of pressure on Browns' tackles Geron Christian and James Hudson III.
The defense needs another clutch performance from Barnett, who's been a revelation since the Texans acquired him five games ago. Barnett, a former first-round pick by Philadelphia who was released by the Eagles, has capitalized on injuries to Anderson and Jonathan Greenard (12.5 sacks). He has 2.5 sacks, 19 tackles, 11 quarterback hits and eight tackles for loss. In his four starts, according to Pro Football Focus, Barnett has a 90.6 rating, tied for second with Greenard during that span behind Cleveland's Myles Garrett (93.1). Flacco, who's averaged 323.2 yards since signing with the Browns and compiling a 4-1 record, has to be disrupted. He likes to throw the ball down the field, and his accuracy has mostly been pinpoint on deep throws. The Texans have to get to him with their four-man rush and bring him down.
C.J. Stroud has been exceptional in just about every situation during his rookie season, but the playoffs are another animal. Based on how he's played in the biggest games of his career – Ohio State vs. Georgia in the semifinals last year and at Indianapolis last week – the only reason he might not play as well is the NFL's No. 1 defense. Cleveland is first in total yards (270.2), 11th against the run (105.5) and first against the pass (164.7). The Texans are 12th in offense (342.4), including seventh in passing (245.5).
In the two games Stroud has played since returning from his concussion, he's thrown for 477 yards in victories over Tennessee and Indianapolis. He had three touchdowns and no interceptions. His ratings were 102.7 and 134.1. Stroud joined Joe Montana (1989) and Tom Brady (2007) as the only quarterbacks in history to lead the NFL in yards per game (273.8) and touchdown-to-interception differential (23/5). Stroud threw interceptions in three of the 15 games he played in. His decision-making and ball placement have been incredible, especially for a rookie. And when he has healthy receivers, he throws the ball down the field rather than dumping it off. The Browns have to excel against Nico Collins the way they did in the first game in which he had four catches for four catches for 18 yards and a touchdown.
WAS RUN DEFENSE PERFORMANCE A FLUKE?
Before the last game at Indianapolis, the Texans were tied for third against the run, allowing 88 yards a game, an extraordinary improvement from last season when they were the NFL's worst with 170 yards a game. The defense hadn't allowed an opposing runner to rush for as much as 90 yards. It's amazing how bad the run defense was against the Colts, returning to the 2022 ineptness by surrendering 227 yards, including 188 by Jonathan Taylor. And the Texans still managed to win the game 23-19.
Will the run defense repeat that Indianapolis performance, or will it revert to its outstanding play through the first 16 games? A good sign is what happened after DeMeco Ryans made what he called a "schematic change" late in the third quarter. From that point on, the Colts ran 13 times for 26 yards, a 2-yard average. Taylor carried 11 times for 20 yards, a 1.8 average.
In the first game against the Browns, the Texans allowed 54 yards on 30 carries (1.8 average) and two touchdowns. Cleveland will run to help out Joe Flacco. Jerome Ford (813 yards) and Kareem Hunt (411 yards and nine touchdowns) have done a good job of replacing Nick Chubb, who was lost early in the season with a knee injury.
In the first game against the Browns, the Texans fell behind so far so fast they had to play catchup and almost abandoned the run. They had 16 carries for 72 yards, a 4.5 average. In the six games they've reached 100 yards rushing, they're 6-1, including 3-0 when Devin Singletary hits triple digits. It stands to reason offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik is going to make every effort to rush for at least 100 yards, including using end-around plays with his wide receivers.
If the Browns' No. 1 defense has a weakness it's stopping the run. Expect Slowik to call a lot of running plays for Singletary and maybe a couple for Dameon Pierce. And there's a good chance C.J. Stroud won't waste opportunities to run. He took off three times in the victory over the Colts and gained 20 yards, second to Singletary's team-leading 63. Ideally, the running game will help Stroud's passing game control the clock and keep Joe Flacco and his receivers on the bench for as long as possible.
John McClain can be heard Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday on SportsRadio 610 and Monday, Thursday and Sunday on Texans Radio, also on SportsRadio 610. He writes five columns a week and does three Houtopia Football Podcasts for SportsRadio610.com.
