(SportsRadio 610) - Two weeks ago, the Texans defeated the Titans in Tennessee on Ka'imi Fairbairn's 54-yard field goal on the last play of overtime. Case Keenum was the starting quarterback, but C.J. Stroud has returned for Sunday's game at NRG Stadium after missing two games with a concussion.
The Texans were 1-1 without Stroud. The Titans lost last week's game to Seattle with rookie Will Levis sidelined because of an ankle injury he suffered in the loss to the Texans in Nashville. Stroud and Levis are competing against each other for the first of what's expected to be many times in this AFC South series.
In the Texans' victory at Nissan Stadium, the defense played without end Will Anderson Jr. and linebacker Blake Cashman and lost safety Jimmie Ward for the season. It looks as if Anderson and Cashman will play, but the Texans are going to be without end Jonathan Greenard (ankle).
The Texans, who are 8-7 and tied with Jacksonville and Indianapolis for first place in the AFC South, are favored by four points. The over/under is 44. Based on what happens this weekend, the Texans can still win the division title or earn a wild card playoff berth, but they need to beat the Titans and defeat the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium.
The Jaguars have a four-game losing streak and play at home against Carolina and on the road against Tennessee. They're 3-5 at home. The Colts have lost two of their last three games and finish at home against the Raiders and Texans. They're 3-4 at home.
Sunday's game should be close because that's the way the Texans and Titans have played most of the season. The Texans have played nine of 11 games decided by seven or fewer points, and they're 6-3. Eight of those 11 games have been decided by five or fewer points, six by three or fewer and four on field goals with no time remaining. The Titans have played 11 one-score games, and they're 4-7. They're 2-4 in games decided by three or fewer points.
As the Texans and Titans continue to prepare for Sunday's game, here are five things to watch:
Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, who calls the plays, said Stroud looked as good as ever in practice this week, but the fact is coaches never know for sure about a player coming off a concussion until they see him on the field. When Stroud suffered the concussion in the 30-6 loss at the Jets, he was 10-of-21 for 91 yards and had been sacked four times. Sacks were an issue in his last three games. Opponents sacked him 13 times during that three-game stretch and knocked him down 19 times.
The Titans get consistent pressure on the quarterback. They have 44 sacks. Their most dangerous pass rushers in their 3-4 scheme are end Denico Autry (11.5 sacks), outside linebacker Harold Landry (9.5) and outside linebacker Arden Key (six). Autry had two sacks in the first game against the Texans. As coach DeMeco Ryans said this week, Stroud must be protected.
C.J. Stroud has 20 touchdown passes and five interceptions, the second-best ratio in the league. He's also second in passing yards per game with 279.3. If he had been able to play the last two games and had reached that average, he'd go into Sunday's game with 4,189 yards – 25 behind Tua Tagovailoa. No rookie has led the NFL in yards passing since Davey O'Brien in 1939.
In 13 games, Stroud has 61 completions of 20 or more yards, second to Brock Purdy's 70. Stroud needs one more game of at least 300 yards and two touchdowns to have six for the season, which would break his tie with Andrew Luck and Justin Herbert for the most by a rookie. By the way, the Texans have authored 10 games with receivers having at least 100 yards, tied with the Dolphins for the most in the league.
Fortunately for Stroud, he'll have receivers Nico Collins, who missed the Titans game, Noah Brown and tight end Dalton Schultz to help him try to throw for 300 yards for a seventh time and the first since the loss to Jacksonville at NRG Stadium. Brown had eight catches for 82 yards and a touchdown in the victory at Tennessee.
After averaging 203.6 yards and 7.1 a carry in his previous five games against the Texans, Derrick Henry rushed for 9 yards on 16 carries two weeks ago. The Texans limited the Titans to 66 yards rushing, including 2.2 a carry.
Henry has been hit in the backfield on 50 percent of his carries, more than any back in the league. He's still a great player, and he's got a lot of pride, so the Texans should expect the best of what he's got in the last year of his contract. They'd be more than happy to see him out of the AFC South next season.
The linemen and linebackers smothered Henry as soon as he got the ball. They didn't allow him to get going. He touched the ball 20 times and gained 10 yards, including 1 yard on four catches. The Texans attacked the Titans' running game and swarmed Henry and the running game and did an exceptional job of tackling. They had 12 tackles for loss, second-most in team history. They need that kind of effort again. The Texans surrender 90.9 yards a game on the ground (sixth), including 3.3 a carry (second). They haven't allowed an opposing player to rush for as much as 90 yards.
DEFENSE MUST GET PRESSURE ON LEVIS
DeMeco Ryans and defensive coordinator Matt Burke prefer to get pressure on the passer with a four-man rush. They've got injuries up front, but they're not going to change their strategy.
Two weeks ago, the linemen made life miserable for Will Levis, who completed 17-of-26 for 199 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. His rating was 72.4. He ran four times for 25 yards.
Levis was sacked seven times, including 2.5 by Jonathan Greenard and 1.5 by Maliek Collins. Khalil Davis and Derek Barnett also had sacks. The Texans knocked down Levis 11 times – nine by the linemen, including three by Greenard. Of the defense's 12 tackles for loss, the linemen had seven.
Levis is 6-4, 229 – strong and fearless with a cannon for an arm. He likes to throw deep. He'll be looking for DeAndre Hopkins, who has 61 catches for 939 yards (15.4 average) and six touchdowns.
The Texans are hoping Hopkins doesn't get his seventh 1,000-yard season – five with the Texans – against them. He was limited to two receptions for 21 yards in the first game. If Levis is given enough time to throw, he'll look for receivers down the field. He doesn't like checkdowns unless absolutely necessary.
As the Texans showed at Tennessee, they're capable of running the ball quite well. Unfortunately for them, those kind of rushing performances have been few and far between.
They ran for 148 yards against the Titans, who entered the game allowing 110.2. That output was the second-best of the season for the Texans. Devin Singletary had his second-most prolific performance with 121 yards on 26 carries. That was the third time he had reached 100 yards.
The Texans' offensive line did an outstanding job of run blocking in the first game. The Texans go into Sunday's game 23rd in rushing with 98.4 yards a game. The Titans are 14th against the run, allowing 109.2.
There's a good chance the Texans won't be as productive on the ground. There's a good chance both teams will contain the running game, which puts the onus on the quarterbacks.
John McClain can be heard Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday on SportsRadio 610 and Monday, Thursday and Sunday on Texans Radio, also on SportsRadio 610. He writes five columns a week and does three Houtopia Football Podcasts for SportsRadio610.com.
