The NCAA Tournament bracket is set and it’s now on us to figure out who is going to win the 2021 National Championship.
There are different ways sports bettors have found an edge into how to predict who will go the furthest in their brackets, but one proven method is to use KenPom’s advanced metrics to create a short list of title contenders.
Ken Pomery’s website is the holy grail of college basketball statistics. Since its inception in 2002, KenPom’s numbers have become so intertwined with the sports betting market that most of his projected scores create the initial spread and total at sportsbooks.
Sports bettors are so in tune with the metrics, that they have figured out a threshold most teams have to fall into to win a National Championship.
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Since 2002, every team that has cut down the nets has placed inside of KenPom’s top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. There is one outlier, the 2014 Connecticut Huskies, who were 39th in KenPom’s offensive efficiency mark, the only team outside of this threshold.
Here are the teams that rank top-20 in offensive and defensive efficiency and others knocking on the door. You'll notice one glaring omission...the Baylor Bears, who have the second shortest odds to win the National Championship at BetMGM (+500).
KenPom Darlings
It’s worth noting that these rankings change with every game and more information being fed into KenPom. However, as it stands now, four teams qualify as national title contenders: Gonzaga, Michigan, Illinois, and Houston.
Illinois and Houston are both KenPom darlings, and the two are on a collision course for an Elite 8 matchup in the Midwest region. Houston is the only team rated top-20 in offensive and defensive efficiency that didn't earn a no. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Gonzaga has been the prohibitive favorite to cut down the nets all season, and the numbers don’t lie. The Bulldogs are the No. 1 team in KenPom, ranking No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 10 in defensive efficiency.
Elsewhere, Michigan looked to be a formidable threat to the Bulldogs, but the injury to forward Isaiah Livers could be a crushing blow to the Wolverines' title hopes, despite sitting inside the top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
East Region Contenders
As I mentioned earlier, these numbers are ever-changing and several teams are just outside the top 20 with an opportunity to play themselves into the threshold with a deep tournament run. I included teams inside KenPom's top-40 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
These clubs can be smart value bets throughout the tournament. Michigan is likely to be short-handed in the Tournament, and four teams in the bottom half of their bracket are knocking on the door of the KenPom top-20.
A potential second-round meeting between Connecticut and Alabama will be interesting. UConn is a bit more balanced, while Alabama has an elite defense to go with their three-point reliant offense. Despite being a No. 7 seed, UConn ranks top-25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. If you believe in this theory, there is some value on the Huskies 33-1 to win it all at BetMGM.
Two other teams inside the top-40 in the East bracket, Texas and BYU, could meet in Round 2. Both teams aren’t elite on either side of the ball at their current marks, but don’t have a glaring weakness either.
The bottom half of the East region is loaded with near KenPom darlings, and would be on a path to face a vulnerable Michigan team in the Elite 8.
Fade Baylor?
Now we get to the shocker. You’re probably wondering why Baylor, the clear No. 2 team in the country all season, isn't on the list.
The Bears' play has dropped considerably since the team returned from their COVID-19 pause a few weeks ago. Baylor is 44th in KenPom’s adjusted defense metric, despite having the No. 3 offense. The Bears are also the top 3-point shooting team in college basketball.
The sky is not falling for Baylor. They are still the No. 1 seed in the South region, but keep an eye on their defense that has been gashed of late. Baylor's rebounding numbers have fallen off a cliff too, down to 280th in defensive rebounding rate in the country.
Further, they have allowed 70 or more points in five of seven games since returning from the COVID-19 pause. For reference, the Bears had allowed 70 or more just three times in the 17 games prior.
Many people will be picking Baylor to win the National Championship based on its total body of work this season. However, if you believe in the KenPom system that's been correct every year but one since 2002, the Bears are about to bust a lot of brackets.
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Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary.