Maybe this could finally be the year.
The Cougars have been close in previous years, going to the Final Four, Elite Eight and Sweet 16 over the past five seasons.
They just haven't quite knocked down the door. But this is widely considered Houston's best offensive group of the bunch.
The Coogs secured a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament for a third straight season. Here is what experts are saying about their chances at winning a national championship.
It's no surprise Houston is a contender again. In the past five seasons under Kelvin Sampson, the program has made it as far as the Final Four, the Elite Eight and the Sweet 16 (the other three times). But this is the best offensive group of Cougars that Sampson has coached. Ranked 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency on KenPom, they now have the scorers they lacked in past years, including L.J. Cryer (43% from beyond the arc), who averaged 18.0 PPG in the final 12 games of the regular season.
The offensive uptick has also turned the Cougars into an elite squad in transition (rated "Excellent," per Synergy Sports data). This Houston squad, which finished 19-1 in the Big 12 and lost just one regular-season game after Nov. 30, is Sampson's best shot at his first national title, assuming J'Wan Roberts (who missed the last two games with an ankle injury) is available and Milos Uzan (25 points in the Big 12 tournament title game) continues to excel.
The only top seed from last year's tournament that's also a No. 1 this year. And it's the third straight Big Dance Houston's on the top line. The Cougars are as reliable as pretty much anything going in college basketball. Kelvin Sampson's team held opponents to 50 points or fewer nine times this season, tops in the nation.
This group is also the deadliest 3-point-shooting team BY FAR; Sampson's ever had. Three guards, LJ Cryer, Milos Uzan, Emanuel Sharp all shot above 40%. Houston ranks fourth nationally in 3-point shooting at 39.8%. So there's that in addition to a vintage Coogs defense, which is No. 2 in KenPom and has one of the premier defenders in Joseph Tugler. We await to see how held back center J'Wan Roberts will be with his ankle injury, but it speaks to Houston's culture that, even without him, this team has a claim to top-five status.
The Cougars were held back from a Final Four run last season when Jamal Shead got injured in the Sweet 16. If this team is fully healthy, it can easily atone for that over the next two weeks.
Houston's floor is as high as any team in the country, which has been the case for the last six years. It has won back-to-back Big 12 regular-season titles after moving to the league from the AAC, won the Big 12 tournament and has reached the Sweet 16 in the last four NCAA Tournaments. The Cougars would likely be coming off their second Final Four and third Elite Eight in the last four years if Jamal Shead didn't hurt his knee.
On paper, this group looks like the best team Sampson has had at Houston heading into the tournament. Keep an eye on the status of Roberts. He missed the last two games of the Big 12 tournament with an ankle injury, but he was out of his boot during the title game. Houston's efficiency margin, according to KenPom, was better than any team's efficiency margin last season not named UConn.
With Uzan filling Shead's void on the offensive end, the Cougars are as good of a bet to make the Final Four as anyone. If they get to San Antonio, the Alamodome will feel like a home game. Houston can absolutely win the national championship.
