It's not about the best horse. It's about the best trip among 20 horses on a potentially wet track that hurls stinging mud into colts' faces while cheering by more than 100,000 fans sounds like a roar of invading Vikings.
Add that to your analytics.
Once again, the Louisville track is jammed with solid rivals still early in their careers plus a solid contender from Japan via Dubai. Cyberknife will be the long-shot winner of Saturday's Kentucky Derby in a race with a half-dozen worthy rivals. But, it will take luck.
The choice is Cyberknife over Crown Pride for a $2 exacta payoff that might pay nearly $1,000. Taiba gets third over favorite Epicenter for a five-figure payday by picking the top four finishers.
It comes down to pace. The Derby is traditionally won by those laying in the middle until making a move coming out of the final turn. Oh, occasionally a frontrunner can lead the entire trip and favored Epicenter might just steal the race early. But history says Epicenter will be caught by the sixteenth pole and only two lengths may separate the top four finishers.
Cyberknife must adjust his usual frontrunning style, but the Arkansas Derby winner seems to be peaking. That he's starting from post No. 16 will force Cyberknife to run midpack for the first half of the race. But, his last two races show a willingness to last longer distances.
Crown Pride is an outlier in Derby lore. Few foreign runners fare well in the Derby, but the Japanese-bred won his first two starts in its home country before later taking the UAE Derby in Dubai convincingly. That Crown Pride has won under two other jockeys makes the rider change less worrisome. Christophe Lemaire is the world's leading jockey on the Japanese circuit.
Taiba addresses the 800-pound elephant on the track. Trainer Bob Baffert is currently suspended after his 2021 Derby winner Medina Spirit was disqualified for a banned substance. Baffert transferred Taiba and Messier to his former assistants. Both Taiba and Messier have legitimate chances to win. Taiba is 2-0 with a Santa Anita Derby victory, but it's asking a lot for such a green runner to adapt to a new trainer and win the Kentucky Derby. Still, he should hit the board.
Epicenter is the legit favorite. If he can get away cleanly from the No. 3 post and not be smothered by long shots through the first turn, Epicenter could win. But, the torrid pace may take a little too much and leave him short.
The pick is 16-7-12-3 for numbers players, but this isn't an analytics nerd's dream. This race figures to favor who gets the best trip to the winner's circle.
Rick Snider has covered Washington sports since 1978. Follow him on Twitter: @Snide_Remarks.